Cubans living abroad now hold the key to their country’s uncertain future

Since the early days of Cuba’s 1950s revolution – which overthrew the US-backed dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista and replaced it with a socialist government led by Fidel Castro – the Cuban diaspora have played a large role in determining the island nation’s economic and political landscape.

The first wave of predominantly wealthy, white Cuban emigrants have for decades campaigned for a watertight embargo against their homeland. Many fled immediately after the revolution succeeded in 1959, primarily to the US, and have largely refused to visit their homeland on principle.

More recent Cuban emigrants who have left the island (again overwhelmingly to the US) since the economic crisis of the 1990s, are generally less affluent and have less political clout. They have forged cross-border links with friends and family members who remain on the island. Through the remittances they send back, these people are now a vital source of foreign currency for Cuba.

The regime in Havana has traditionally maintained a disdainful attitude towards the Cuban diaspora. In the early waves of migration, Cuba’s government officially referred to those who emigrated as gusanos (worms) – traitors aiming to overthrow the government. Expat investment in Cuba was subsequently banned.

But following recent negotiations with the US, this policy posture has changed significantly. After decades of restricting its relationship with the diaspora, the Cuban government announced in March 2026 that it would allow Cuban emigrants residing in places like the US to return to the country, invest in the private sector and own businesses.

In an interview with NBC News on March 16, Cuba’s minister of foreign trade and investment, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, said: “Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with US companies and also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants.”

Washington’s blessings

The policy change comes as Cuba desperately attempts to rescue its devastated economy. A slew of economic and fuel embargoes imposed by the US government since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January 2025 have led to a severe crisis in the country.

Many Cubans are struggling to find food, medicine and other essential goods, while severe energy shortages are causing periods of complete blackout across the nation. The situation has become so dire that, for the first time in six decades, sporadic protests have broken out against the Cuban government.

In one of these protests, people in the central city of Morón ransacked a Communist Party headquarters. Videos on social media showed a group of people approaching the building with flaming objects, shouting “freedom, freedom” as they threw them inside.

The current state of affairs in Cuba has presented the US with an opportunity to orchestrate regime change – something it has sought for years. And proclamations by Trump and his secretary of state, Marco Rubio, suggest this may well be the US government’s intention.

In comments made to reporters in March, Trump said he believes he will have “the honour of taking Cuba”. He added: “Whether I free [Cuba], take it – I could do anything I want with it. You want to know the truth? They’re a very weakened nation right now.”

Rubio, who is the son of Cuban emigrants and has traditionally been hawkish about delivering regime change in Cuba, then declared: “Who’s going to invest billions of dollars in a communist country run by incompetent communists? … Giving people economic and political freedom is important, but they come hand in hand. They come together.”

Despite this rhetoric, many in Washington remain cautious about triggering an outright collapse of the regime. State collapse would almost certainly lead to an increase in the flow of Cuban refugees to the US – something the Trump administration wants to avoid.

While weakened, the regime in Havana remains in place. The extended Castro family still wields considerable power and influence in the country. The men leading the talks with the US, Fraga and Raúl Rodríguez, are two of Fidel Castro’s great-nephews.

Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, has said he will not resign under US pressure. He told NBC News on April 9 that “the concept of revolutionaries giving up and stepping down [is] not part of our vocabulary”.

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, later said that Moscow, a longstanding ally of the regime in Havana, had no intention of abandoning Cuba.

Despite publicly calling for fundamental reform to the power structure in Havana, Washington’s approach towards Cuba seems primarily aimed at using its leverage to encourage the regime to make concessions that diminish the island’s value to US adversaries.

The US government has encouraged Havana to open its doors to expat investment before. Under the presidency of Barack Obama, who is credited with reestablishing diplomatic relations with Havana in 2009 after half a century of diplomatic blockades, the flow of people and remittances between the US and Cuba expanded.

This warming of relations created some opportunities for increased investment in Cuba, both by US citizens and Cuban emigrants. But the Cuban government maintained significant restrictions on large investments by Cubans living abroad, which hindered the full potential of foreign investment.

Fast forward to today, and the far more desperate economic and political situation in Cuba has made the regime in Havana more open to the demands of the US to restructure its governance. At this juncture, Cuba’s diaspora can be a much-needed catalyst for change in their home country.

Amalendu Misra is a recipient of British Academy and Nuffield Foundation Fellowships.