Consumers Spend Through the Squeeze as Income Slips

Figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released Thursday (April 9) show personal income declined 0.1% in February, with disposable personal income falling as well, even as personal consumption expenditures rose 0.5%. That divergence is now defining the cycle.

Disposable Income Pressures Build as Savings Erode

The pressure becomes more apparent when viewed in real terms. Disposable income, adjusted for inflation, declined 0.5% in February, reversing prior gains, while real consumption continued to edge higher for a tenth consecutive month. The gap between what households earn and what they spend is therefore being bridged elsewhere.

Savings are absorbing part of that strain. The personal saving rate fell to 4%, down from 4.5% in January, continuing a gradual erosion of financial cushions. At the same time, inflation remains embedded in spending patterns, with much of the nominal growth in expenditures reflecting higher prices rather than a meaningful increase in volume.

In other data released Thursday, real GDP growth slowed to a 0.5% annualized pace in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting weaker investment and uneven contributions across sectors, even as private demand remained intact. This leaves consumer spending carrying a disproportionate share of economic momentum.

The gap between income and spending is not being managed through savings alone. It is also being addressed through changes in how households generate income.

PYMNTS Intelligence research in collaboration with Ingo Payments shows that income streams are increasingly fragmented, with more than 1 in 5 consumers relying on disbursements as a primary income source and another 41% treating them as important supplemental income. This reflects a shift away from a single paycheck model toward a mix of earnings that arrive at different times and from different sources.

Inflation remains embedded in data released on Thursday. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 0.4% for the month, with core PCE also rising 0.4%, keeping year-over-year inflation near 3%. That combination of firm prices and modest real consumption growth suggests households are maintaining spending levels but doing so under tighter real purchasing conditions.

In that environment, timing carries greater weight. Consumers expect funds to be available when needed, and instant payouts are becoming central to managing cash flow. The ability to access income quickly helps explain how spending can remain steady even when traditional wage growth slows.

Installments and Pay-Later Tools Close the Gap

Credit is also being used with greater precision. Consumers are not simply borrowing more; they are choosing how to borrow based on immediate financial objectives.

Separate PYMNTS Intelligence data show that pay-later tools serve distinct purposes. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is often selected for speed and ease at the point of sale, while credit card installment plans are used to structure repayment and maintain control over budgets.

These tools function as a bridge between income timing and spending needs. They allow households to manage liquidity without immediately drawing down savings or relying on revolving credit balances that can become more costly over time.

PYMNTS’ Consumer Expectations Index indicates that financial resilience is unevenly distributed. Households that are not living paycheck to paycheck maintain a measurable buffer and remain positioned to absorb short-term shocks, while those struggling to meet monthly obligations show significantly weaker capacity to sustain spending. The divide between these groups continues to shape overall consumption patterns.

The near-term outlook reflects a balance between resilience and constraint. Consumers remain active, supported by supplemental income streams and flexible payment options. At the same time, declining savings rates and negative real income growth limit how long those supports can carry spending forward.