Stats Show Trump’s Immigration Policies Are Doing Very Real and Long Term Damage to the Political Power of Blue Cities and States
Now that President Trump has shut down the border and stopped the flow of new people into blue cities and states, they are not able to maintain their population levels as people flee to better places like Texas and Florida.
With smaller populations, these cities and states are going to lose significant electoral power in the present, but even more so in the future. Long term, this is a disaster for them and that is the source for much of their rage.
The left tries to frame their anti-ICE protests as a humanitarian issue but it has nothing to do with that. It’s all about the loss of political power, which is all they have ever really cared about.
The entire issue can be summarized by this chart. Those red lines are population loss:
One key political ramification of collapsing international net migration: fewer people moving to blue states and cities.
With 2030 reapportionment already expected to cost Democrats house seats and electoral votes, this pattern could deepen those losses. pic.twitter.com/W7VqjQJRCZ
— Zachary Donnini (@ZacharyDonnini) April 7, 2026
Zachary Donnini writes at Substack:
Trump’s Crackdown Sends Migration Plunging
Over the past several election cycles, immigration has become one of the defining issues in American politics. Although President Donald Trump campaigned on more restrictive immigration policies in the 2016 presidential election, net international migration was actually higher in his first term than in Obama’s. After migration rose to unprecedented levels by the end of Biden’s presidency, Trump has followed through on his campaign rhetoric, with his administration implementing a markedly stricter approach to immigration enforcement in his second term. I estimate that net international migration has plummeted to roughly one-third of the levels observed at the end of Biden’s second term. Official U.S. Census Bureau projections already indicate that net international migration in 2026 is expected to be roughly nine times lower than in 2024—an estimate I view as broadly reasonable.
The largest declines in net international migration have occurred in Democratic-leaning urban areas—particularly in California, Chicago, and the Northeast, but also in parts of Texas, Colorado, and Florida. Given that the Census has already signaled that 2030 U.S. House reapportionment may already be unfavorable to Democratic states, a continuation of this trend—where domestic outmigration from blue states is not offset by international inflows—could further exacerbate those losses and frankly make the 2032 Electoral Map pretty scary for Democrats.
The Democrats’ loss is the Republicans’ gain.
As people flee these blue states and cities for red states, the blues will lose representation and the reds will pick up more. More people in Congress, more electoral votes, etc.
It’s important to keep this in the back of your mind when the Democrats throw their next temper tantrum. They don’t talk about this issue very much but it is driving much of their rage.
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