Our View: US-Iran must keep talking as failure would be devastating

Mercifully, the whole civilisation did not die in the early hours of Wednesday as had been predicted by President Donald Trump. It will survive for at least another fortnight, the duration of the ceasefire agreed between Iran and the United States, which begin negotiations for an agreement to end the war permanently in Islamabad on Friday. 

If talks go well, the ceasefire will be extended beyond the two weeks. Trump said the ten-point proposal submitted by Iran was a “workable basis on which to negotiate,” but he would say that as it gave him an excuse not to carry out his threat of attacking infrastructure and civilian targets in Iran. Negotiations are no guarantee the war would not resume. There had been talks in progress when the US and Israel launched their attack on Iran, representatives of the two sides having met on Friday – the day before the Saturday morning bombardment. And they agreed to meet the following week.

For President Trump the deal was a “total and complete victory,” primarily because Iran had agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz, which had suddenly become the main objective of the war for the US. The irony was that the strait was open before the US-Israel war on Iran began and would have never been closed by Tehran if Iran had not been attacked; its closure was caused by the war and not the other way round.

Its opening now will not lead to normality and the lowering of oil prices, because shipowners are very unlikely to send their tankers back to the strait, for fear the truce will not hold. Without permanent peace, few will risk sending their oil tankers through the strait. It will also take many months if not longer for the damage done to oil infrastructure in the Gulf states to be repaired.

The important thing, for now, is that the firing of missiles and aerial bombings have stopped and there is hope, however slim it may be, for a permanent agreement. Iran will not have all the ten points in its proposal satisfied, but this is why there will be negotiations. There is no way there could be acceptance of Iran’s uranium enrichment, as its elimination, together with regime change, were the original goals of the war on Iran. But the US would probably discuss the lifting of sanctions and the guarantee of no future attacks if Iran abandoned its nuclear programme. It would not end its military presence in the region or pay reparations.

These will be difficult negotiations, and both sides would want a compromise that would allow them to boast some kind of victory. Perhaps they will keep at it for as long as it takes to reach a deal, because the consequences of failure would be devastating for the world.