Trump Confounds Critics Again
President Donald Trump has once again confounded his many critics by agreeing to a two-week ceasefire in the war against Iran, after threatening to bomb Iran back to the Stone Age and end a civilization.
On the right, former Trump supporter and former congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene said that Trump had gone “insane.” Andrew Day in The American Conservative suggested that Trump might use nuclear weapons against Iran. Bruce Fein characterized Trump’s attacks on Iran as “unconstitutional” and “criminal.” Steven Simon in Responsible Statecraft accused Trump of threatening genocide in Iran. (RELATED: The Real Risk to Trump’s Coalition Over Iran)
On the left, Sen. Chuck Schumer said Trump resembled “an unhinged madman.” Sen. Bernie Sanders called Trump “dangerous and mentally unbalanced.” Representative Ro Khanna accused Trump of “threatening war crimes.” Charlie Savage in the New York Times called Trump’s threats “self-incriminating statements” for a future war crimes trial. Some critics have suggested invoking the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office. (RELATED: The Illusion of Victory: Trump, Iran, and the Limits of Military Power)
Trump’s threat was to bomb Iran’s infrastructure — bridges, desalination plants, power plants. These are the kinds of targets that were routinely bombed during World War II, yet Trump’s critics claim that deliberately striking them would be a war crime. All of those targets affect Iran’s ability to make war. Judged by this standard, Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman were war criminals — after all, they oversaw and countenanced the deliberate bombing of civilians in Germany and Japan. (RELATED: Trump: A Real Commander-in-Chief)
And if the current Iran war is unconstitutional because Congress did not declare war, so was the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the first Gulf War, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the early 2000s, and many other lesser conflicts that have been waged by American presidents without a congressional declaration of war. The Constitution, after all, does not mention congressional resolutions or authorizations that previous presidents have used to wage war.
Those same critics warned us last June that Trump’s authorization to attack Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities would lead to a quagmire and another “endless war” in the Middle East that Trump had campaigned against. Trump confounded the critics then by stopping the war after 12 days once the objective was accomplished.
If we have learned anything about Trump during his presidencies, it is that he does not bluff.
Now, Trump has confounded the critics again. One hour before the attack that could end Iran’s civilization was to begin, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire to allow for peace negotiations to continue. Presumably, those negotiations are making some progress, otherwise Trump would have ordered the civilization-ending bombing to start. If we have learned anything about Trump during his presidencies, it is that he does not bluff.
Writing in Foreign Policy, hardly a MAGA journal, Rand strategic analyst Raphael Cohen takes a more balanced and less unhinged view of the progress of the Iran war than Trump’s many critics. Cohen writes that the Iran war is not a “debacle,” rather it is a “dilemma” like all wars. Operationally, he writes, the war is going reasonably well, noting that the U.S. and Israel “have made significant progress toward achieving [their] objectives” of destroying Iran’s missiles and missile industry, destroying Iran’s navy, degrading Iran’s proxy network, and further degrading Iran’s ability to obtain a nuclear weapon. Diplomatically, the Gulf states have sided with the U.S. and Israel against Iran.
The major dilemma is the Strait of Hormuz, the closure of which is wreaking havoc on the world’s energy markets. Trump’s ceasefire agreement is designed to resolve that dilemma. If the diplomatic route fails, Cohen writes, the U.S. has three options: walk away and declare victory, which would leave Iran in control of the Strait; continue the air campaign, which might bring Iran’s leaders back to the negotiating table; and escalation, which could topple the regime but risks increased costs and “unintended consequences.” (RELATED: Five Quick Things: Hormuz)
As in most wars, there is likely no perfect solution. But, Cohen writes, the war “is not the catastrophe that some make it out to be, nor is the United States stuck in a quagmire.” Iran’s threat to the region has been scaled-back. Any solution — military or negotiated — is likely to be temporary — that is the way international relations usually work.
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