What US strikes on Iran's oil hub on Kharg Island could mean for the global energy trade

• The US struck Kharg ahead of Trump's Tuesday ceasefire deadline.
• The island handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it significant to the global oil trade.
• Kharg Island disruptions could compound the historic oil shock from the war, JPMorgan warned.

A tiny island in the Persian Gulf has emerged as a key focus during the Iran war due to its crucial role in the global oil trade.

The US struck Iran's Kharg island ahead of Donald Trump's Tuesday night ceasefire deadline, according to reports. The small island in the Persian Gulf handles 90% of Iran's oil exports, making it a critical hub for the Iranian economy and the global oil trade.

Iran Open Data analysis puts the figure even higher, at 96%. "In effect, almost the entirety of Iran's oil exports — and a large share of the country's hard-currency earnings — depends on a single island terminal in the northern Persian Gulf."

Market commentary published in The Kobeissi Letter on Tuesday said investors should keep an eye on action on the island, saying that "strikes would significantly intensify the ongoing energy crisis in Asia."

Kharg, which is only about eight square miles, is known as the "Forbidden Island," and is heavily guarded by Iran's military due to its critical role in the country's energy trade.

"Kharg Island has been Iran's primary oil export hub for nearly seven decades and is considered a lifeline for the Iranian economy. It handles the majority of the country's crude oil shipments, most of which are destined for Asia—predominantly China," research from the Council on Foreign Relations reads.

CEFP senior research analyst Daniel Swift reported that half of Iran's government revenue comes from oil and gas, meaning damage to Kharg's oil infrastructure could be devastating for the country's economy.

The US initially attacked the island, which Trump called "Iran's crown jewel" in mid-March, but didn't target oil infrastructure. Reports suggest the latest attack also spared energy infrastructure.

JPMorgan warned that a disruption to Kharg Island could compound the already historic oil supply shock from the war.

Trump has reportedly weighed the US occupying Kharg. Neil Quilliam, an energy analyst at Chatham House, described the island as Iran's "Achilles Heel," explaining that an occupation would give the US leverage in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Quilliam said it's unlikely that Trump would send ground troops to Kharg, given its strategic importance to global markets.