What gas price shock? Pokémon cards and Needoh tell another story

• Rising gas prices aren't taking a huge toll on consumer spending, a Mizuho analyst wrote on Monday.
• Look no further than Pokémon cards and Needoh sensory toys, the analyst wrote.
• Gas prices crossed $4 a gallon last week, continuing their Iran-war-fueled rise.

Rising gas prices might not be hurting consumer spending as much as feared. Look at Pokémon card sales.

Average gas prices in the US passed $4 a gallon last week, increasing more than a dollar over one month after the US and Israel began a war with Iran that disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

"If there was ever a time for a gas price shock, this is it," Mizuho analyst David Bellinger wrote in a note to clients on Monday.

A slew of economic and spending data, from Pokémon cards to movie tickets, suggests that gas prices aren't causing consumers to pull back spending elsewhere yet, Bellinger wrote.

Higher gas prices are coinciding with tax season, and many shoppers are receiving tax refunds that could be boosting their spending power. Bellinger wrote that data from the Internal Revenue Service suggests the average tax refund is up by double digits over last year.

Then, there's what shoppers are spending money on. Box office returns over the Easter weekend broke records, Bellinger wrote, and shoppers are still spending on toys such as Needoh sensory toys — an item that few consumers would consider essential.

Trading cards, including Pokémon, are subject to purchasing limits at some retailers, which Bellinger said shows "a clear uptick in the category."

And JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said in the bank's annual shareholder letter on Monday that consumers are "still earning and spending."

"For now, spending seems to be in a good place," Bellinger wrote.

That could change if fuel prices keep rising. Gas prices could hit $5 a gallon this month if the war with Iran continues, analysts at JPMorgan said on Monday.

Other parts of the economy are feeling the pinch of higher fuel prices, too.

Wholesale prices for many kinds of fresh produce have increased over the past month, for example, as diesel prices have risen. Prices for temperature-sensitive produce, such as raspberries, and produce that has to travel long distances to get to market, such as limes from Mexico, have jumped the most.

Dimon also warned in his letter on Monday that "inflation slowly going up" could pull down markets and consumer sentiment this year.

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