AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Georgia’s special congressional runoff
WASHINGTON (AP) — Three months after Republican Marjorie Taylor Greene resigned from Congress following a public rift with President Donald Trump, voters in the northwest Georgia congressional district she once represented will pick a replacement to serve out the remainder of her term.
Tuesday’s special congressional runoff marks the second time in less than a month that voters in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District cast ballots for their representative in Washington. None of the 17 contenders in a March 10 special election received a majority of the vote, triggering Tuesday’s contest between the top two vote-getters.
The outcome will almost immediately affect the fragile balance of power in the closely divided U.S. House, where Republicans cling to a 217-214 majority. An additional seat is held by a former Republican who became an independent in March, while twoseats remain vacant.
Democrat Shawn Harris received the most votes in the Georgia special election, where all candidates ran on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. Harris edged Republican Clay Fuller by about 2 percentage points, aided in part by the fact that the district’s sizable Republican vote was split among a dozen Republican candidates.
Harris is a retired Army brigadier general who lost to Greene in the 2024 general election. Fuller is a district attorney who has Trump’s endorsement. Both are also seeking their parties’ nominations for a full term in the May 19 primary ahead of the November midterm elections.
The district has a history of heavily favoring Republican candidates in general elections. Trump carried the district in 2024 with 68% of the vote. The 37% Harris received in March was slightly better than the roughly 36% of the vote he notched in his head-to-head matchup with Greene in 2024.
Harris modestly improved his vote share in nine of the district’s 10 counties since 2024. He also outperformed former Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 presidential vote share in all 10 counties. But to win the seat, he needs to far surpass the overall mid-30% range that Democrats have received in the district in recent general elections.
His best performances in the special election were in Cobb and Paulding counties, two metro Atlanta counties that are the two most populous in the northwest Georgia district. But Greene still carried every county in the election that year.
Harris, who did not face major Democratic opposition in the special election, raised a total of $6.4 million for his campaign, compared to about $1.3 million for Fuller. As of March 18, Harris had about $745,000 in the bank, while Fuller had about $53,000.
Trump’s endorsement should be a boost for Fuller, considering the president outperformed Greene districtwide. But turnout in special elections is typically much lower than in presidential elections, and turnout for runoffs tends to be even lower.
Elsewhere in Georgia on Tuesday, runoffs will also be held in state Senate District 53 and state House District 94. Republicans control both chambers of the General Assembly, and the outcome of the two special runoffs will not threaten their majorities.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
There is no automatic recount provision in Georgia, but a losing candidate may request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5% of the total vote. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the special runoff elections for the 14th Congressional District, state Senate District 53 and state House District 94.
Who gets to vote?
Any registered voter may participate in the special runoff election in their district, regardless of whether they voted in the March 10 special election.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of Friday, there were about 571,000 total registered voters in the 14th Congressional District, including about 524,000 active voters. Georgia voters do not register by party.
About 116,000 votes were cast in the March 10 U.S. House special election, roughly 52% of which was cast before Election Day.
Nearly 47,000 ballots had already been cast in the U.S. House special runoff election as of Friday.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the March 10 special election, the AP first reported results in the 14th Congressional District at 7:05 p.m. ET, or five minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was from Paulding County at 9:51 p.m. ET with about 99.9% of total votes counted.
When are early and absentee votes released?
All 10 counties in the 14th Congressional District tend to release some or all of their absentee voting results in the first vote update of the night. Four counties, including the two largest, Paulding and Cobb, also tend to include all of their results from early voting in the first vote update. Since the 2020 election, Democrats have been more likely to cast their votes early or by mail. In jurisdictions that release mail and early vote results at the start of the night, this could result in the Democratic candidate taking an initial lead in the vote count until votes from in-person Election Day ballots are tallied.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 210 days until this seat is up again in the 2026 midterm elections.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.