AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Wisconsin’s spring election
WASHINGTON (AP) — Wisconsin voters will choose a new state Supreme Court justice in a Tuesday election that will either maintain or expand the court’s liberal majority. Meanwhile, the city of Waukesha will hold its first open-seat mayoral race in 20 years.
The contests are among the notable highlights of Wisconsin’s spring election, where races for judicial, municipal, educational and other traditionally nonpartisan offices will be decided beyond the din of the more explicitly partisan November elections.
In the race for the high court, state Appeals Court judges Chris Taylor and Maria Lazar are running to replace retiring Justice Rebecca Bradley from the court’s conservative bloc. Taylor is a former Democratic state representative who has endorsements from the court’s four sitting liberal justices. Lazar served as assistant state attorney general under former Republican Gov. Scott Walker. She is endorsed by conservative Justice Annette Ziegler, who announced in March she will not seek a third term in 2027.
This year’s contest has not generated the same level of attention as recent Wisconsin Supreme Court races, since the ideological balance of the bench is not at stake. But the winner will be a part of a panel that could be at the center of a political firestorm if there are any disputes related to either the 2028 presidential election or the next round of congressional redistricting in the early 2030s. Justices are elected to 10-year terms.
Liberals are looking for their fourth consecutive state Supreme Court victory. Liberal justices gained a 4-3 majority on the court in 2023 for the first time in 15 years after Justice Janet Protasiewicz won a seat previously held by a conservative. In 2025, Justice Susan Crawford joined the court and preserved the liberal majority after a campaign where Elon Musk and groups associated with him spent millions in support of a conservative candidate.
In any statewide election in Wisconsin, Democrats tend to win by large margins in the populous counties of Milwaukee and Dane (home to Madison), while Republicans win by wide margins in the smaller, more rural counties that stretch across most of the state. Republican candidates also tend to rely on strong showings in the “WOW” counties — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington in suburban Milwaukee — which help counter Democratic advantages in urban areas. Victory is determined by how big those margins are in the respective party strongholds, as well as which side can win over the more competitive swing areas.
In the 2024 presidential election, then-Vice President Kamala Harris won Milwaukee County with 68% of the vote and Dane County with 75%, while narrowly losing statewide. In comparison, Protasiewicz and Crawford in their successful state Supreme Court races received 73% and 75% of the vote in Milwaukee County and 82% of the vote in Dane County. They both won statewide with double-digit margins of victory.
Protasiewicz and Crawford each also won more than 10 swing counties that voted for Trump in 2024, most notably in Brown County, home to Green Bay, which Trump carried in all three of his White House campaigns.
In the race for Waukesha mayor, Common Council President Alicia Halvensleben and state Rep. Scott Allen are running to replace Mayor Shawn Reilly, who is not seeking a fourth term. Allen has been one of the most conservative Republicans in the Legislature since his election in 2014. Halvensleben is the preferred candidate of the Waukesha County Democratic Party.
Reilly is an independent who left the Republican Party after the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. He has endorsed Halvensleben.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Recounts are not automatic in Wisconsin, but a trailing candidate may request one if the winning vote margin is less than a percentage point. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 8 p.m. local time, which is 9 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in the races for state Supreme Court and Waukesha mayor.
Who gets to vote?
Any registered voter in Wisconsin may participate in the spring election.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of April 1, there were about 3.6 million active registered voters in Wisconsin out of about 4.5 million eligible voting-age adults. Voters in the state do not register by party.
Nearly 2.4 million votes were cast in the 2025 spring election for state Supreme Court, which was about 62% of registered voters. About 29% of voters cast their ballots before election day.
As of Friday, nearly 281,000 ballots had already been cast.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2025 spring election, the AP first reported results in the race for state Supreme Court at 9:09 p.m. ET, or nine minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 2:12 a.m. ET with about 99% of total votes counted. The race was called at 10:16 p.m. ET.
When are early and absentee votes released?
In previous Wisconsin elections, counties varied in terms of when and how they released results from early and absentee voting. In the 2024 general election, roughly a third of the counties released all or most of their early and absentee voting results in the first vote update, while the rest released them throughout the night along with results from in-person Election Day voting.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 210 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/projects/elections-2026/.