Is New Zealand Going to Run Out of Fuel

It is the question on every New Zealander’s mind as petrol prices push past $3.40 a litre and war rages across the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blocked by Iranian forces and global oil markets in turmoil, Kiwis are wondering whether the country they call home could genuinely run out of fuel.

The short answer is that we are not about to run dry tomorrow. But the longer answer is far more uncomfortable, and it reveals just how vulnerable this country has become since it gave up its ability to refine its own oil.

When the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes inside Iran on 28 February 2026, the consequences rippled across the globe within hours. Iran responded with waves of ballistic missiles and drones aimed at Israel, US forces, and Gulf states hosting American military bases. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes every day, became a conflict zone almost overnight. Shipping companies pulled their tankers back, insurance premiums skyrocketed, and the global price of crude oil surged.

For New Zealand, a country sitting at the bottom of the world and entirely dependent on imported refined fuel, this was the nightmare scenario that energy experts had been warning about for years.

Since the Marsden Point oil refinery in Northland was shut down and dismantled in 2022, New Zealand has imported every drop of petrol, diesel, and jet fuel it uses. The country no longer refines crude oil at all. Instead, it buys finished product from large refineries in South Korea, Singapore, and Japan. South Korea alone supplies around 48 percent of our fuel imports, with Singapore providing another 33 percent.

Here is the problem. Those Asian refineries do not produce fuel from thin air. They buy their crude oil from the very countries now caught up in the conflict. South Korea and Singapore both source the vast majority of their crude from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and other Gulf states. In 2024, New Zealand’s top four fuel source countries imported nearly 80 percent of their crude oil from nations surrounding the Persian Gulf. So while we do not buy oil directly from the Middle East any more, we are still completely exposed to whatever happens there.

The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment has been publishing fuel stock updates twice a week since the crisis began. As of 6 April 2026, the latest figures show 61.9 days of petrol supply, 51.5 days of diesel, and 50.1 days of jet fuel when you include tankers already on their way to New Zealand. Those numbers sound reassuring until you remember that they assume new shipments keep arriving at a normal pace. If the disruption to global shipping lanes drags on, those reserves will shrink quickly.

There have already been warning signs. In late March, MBIE data showed diesel stocks could have fallen to as low as 11.3 days of cover around Easter, prompting the government to scramble for additional shipments. The figures were later revised upward after MBIE clarified its data, but the scare highlighted just how thin the margins are.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has been frank about the risks. In mid-March she outlined what she called the worst-case scenario, warning that a prolonged Middle East conflict could push fuel prices even higher, slow economic growth, and potentially lead to fuel restrictions. Analysts have predicted that $4 a litre for 91 octane petrol is not a question of if but when.

The political blame game has already begun. Resources Minister Shane Jones has pointed the finger at the previous Labour government for allowing Marsden Point to close, arguing that having a domestic refinery would make the country more resilient right now. There is some truth to that, although experts are divided. Some argue that a single domestic refinery would have been just as vulnerable to disruption from earthquakes, power cuts, or equipment failure. Others point out that at least it would have given New Zealand the option to process crude from non-Gulf sources.

Either way, reopening Marsden Point is not a realistic option. Government estimates put the cost at between $4.9 billion and $7.3 billion, with a timeline of at least six years. The infrastructure has already been dismantled. What the government has done instead is allocate $20 million from the Regional Infrastructure Fund to recommission diesel storage tanks at the Marsden Point import terminal, giving New Zealand slightly more buffer capacity.

The deeper issue that this crisis has exposed is not really about one refinery. It is about a country that runs almost entirely on fossil fuels for transport and has made itself completely dependent on a global supply chain it cannot control. New Zealand has one of the highest rates of car ownership in the developed world. Public transport outside of the main centres is limited. Electric vehicle uptake, while growing, still accounts for a small fraction of the total fleet. When the fuel supply is threatened, almost everything grinds to a halt.

For now, the government says the situation is stable. Fuel is arriving, stocks are broadly in line with normal levels, and there are no immediate plans for rationing. Six oil tankers were tracked heading for New Zealand in mid-March carrying a combined 2.3 million barrels of fuel. The lights are still on.

But stable is not the same as secure. New Zealand remains at the mercy of events happening thousands of kilometres away, in a waterway it has no influence over, fought over by nations whose interests have nothing to do with whether a tradie in Tauranga can fill up his ute on Monday morning. The war in Iran has not caused New Zealand to run out of fuel. But it has shown, with painful clarity, that we could.

The question every New Zealander should be asking is not whether the fuel will run out this month. It is what we are going to do to make sure we are never in this position again.

What do you think? Is New Zealand doing enough to protect its fuel supply, or have we left ourselves dangerously exposed? Let us know in the comments below.