Early Vote Bodes Ill For Virginia Redistricting Scam
Virginia’s redistricting referendum is not going as well as the Democrats evidently expected. The official date of the special election is April 21 but early voting began on March 6, and the number of ballots cast in heavily Republican areas of the state has been far higher than in their Democratic counterparts. The Old Dominion doesn’t register voters by party, but the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP) publishes early vote totals by congressional district. Five of Virginia’s eleven U.S. House districts are currently held by Republicans and six districts are held by Democrats. Thus far, of the 676,502 Virginians who have voted, 55 percent cast their ballots in the five districts held by Republicans.
Back in 2020, two-thirds of Virginia’s voters passed a referendum that amended the commonwealth’s constitution and created the Virginia Redistricting Commission (VRC).
This does not, of course, mean that everyone voting in these districts is a Republican, but it does suggest that GOP voters are turning out in larger than expected numbers. The VPAP data also suggest that some Democrats may be apathetic about this issue. The weakest turnout has been in the 3rd Congressional District, represented by Democrat Bobby Scott, where 40,237 early votes have been cast. The largest turnout has occurred in the 1st Congressional District, represented by Republican Rob Wittman, where 93,540 votes have been cast. This clearly has Democrats seriously worried. They have spent tens of millions of dollars in order to saturate broadcast, cable, and social media with countless ads featuring erstwhile President Obama attempting to sell this transparent lie:
Virginia, we are counting on you. Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years. But you can stop them by voting, YES, by April 21. Help put our elections back on a level playing field. And let voters decide, not politicians. This is the responsible thing to do. Help us chart a better path forward, Virginia. Vote, YES, by April 21.
The need to haul out big guns like Obama is highlighted by a new Washington Post poll that showed that a majority of Virginia voters are more interested in a fair distribution of congressional representation within the commonwealth than in competing with the gerrymandering schemes of other states. Specifically, the survey found that “57 percent believe it’s more important for Virginia’s congressional districts to reflect the political makeup of the state compared with 34 percent who say they should balance out other states that were drawn to favor one party.” The poll also found that Republican and Republican-leaning independents are more motivated to get out and vote than are their Democratic counterparts:
Among registered voters overall, an 85 percent majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they’re certain to vote or have already done so, up from 76 percent who said that in polling ahead of last fall’s Virginia gubernatorial contest. In the poll, 77 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are committed to voting, on par with 79 percent last fall.
Virginia voters are also less than enthusiastic about the obvious unfairness of the district map the General Assembly and Gov. Abigail Spanberger cooked up. This new map will throw out the relatively balanced congressional ratio of six Democratic representatives and five Republican representatives and replace it with 10 Democrats and a single Republican — if it survives the referendum and ongoing litigation. The Washington Post poll found that only 44 percent of Virginia voters view the proposed map as “fair,” while 48 percent see it as “unfair.” In a particularly ominous sign for the Democrats and Gov. Spanberger, 53 percent of voters who turned out in the 2025, 2024, and 2022 general elections oppose the new map.
There may also be another issue driving turnout that Obama does not discuss in his pitch to the voters. According to a report in the anti-gun publication, The Trace, Virginia’s General Assembly passed no fewer than 25 new gun control laws during the session that just ended and sent them to Governor Spanberger for signature. The last time something this outrageous was attempted was in 2019, when feckless Democrat Ralph Northam was governor. As the Wall Street Journal reported at the time, the vast majority of Virginia’s counties immediately declared their jurisdictions 2nd Amendment sanctuaries: “Eighty-six of Virginia’s 95 counties have passed such sanctuary measures opposing restrictions on the right to keep and bear arms.”
Northam and the General Assembly were eventually forced to back down on several of their new gun laws, including a ban on “assault rifles” similar to the one that Democrats just passed again. It may well be that a similar revolt is under way that will leave Virginia’s new governor with egg on her face. Back in 2020, two-thirds of Virginia’s voters passed a referendum that amended the commonwealth’s constitution and created the Virginia Redistricting Commission (VRC). The VRC was meant to take redistricting away from partisan politicians to prevent the kind of gerrymandering that Democrats are again trying to impose on the voters. Then-Rep. Spanberger supported the VRC. This flip-flop may be too much for the Old Dominion’s voters.
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