PC shipments rise in late 2025 but outlook weakens

US personal computer shipments returned to growth in the fourth quarter of 2025, rising 3 per cent year-on-year to 18.2 million units, according to research by technology market analysts Omdia.

The increase marked a reversal of two consecutive quarters of annual decline, signalling renewed momentum in the market.

The recovery was driven by a combination of the peak of Windows 11 commercial refresh cycles, strong holiday-season demand, and vendor efforts to secure inventory ahead of anticipated supply constraints.

For the full year, shipments reached 71.5 million units in 2025, representing a 3 per cent increase compared with 2024.

However, the outlook has shifted sharply, with 2026 shipments forecast to decline by 13 per cent year-on-year due to tightening supply of key components.

“Q4 marked a meaningful inflection point for the US PC market,” said Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Omdia.

“After two quarters of year-on-year decline, the market returned to growth driven by solid performances across both the consumer and commercial segments,” he added.

Consumer shipments rose 6 per cent to 8.2 million units, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of annual growth.

This performance was supported by holiday spending and a shift towards more affordable price ranges, reflecting changing consumer preferences.

The commercial segment also expanded, with shipments increasing 4 per cent, as enterprises accelerated their migration to Windows 11 ahead of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in October.

“The education segment remains a weak spot, declining 11 per cent in Q4, although this was a notable improvement from the 29 per cent drop in Q3 and the 16 per cent decline in Q2,” said Jessop.

He explained that reduced federal and state funding continued to weigh on school procurement, although inventory pressures have eased.

“Reduced federal and state funding continues to weigh on school procurement, but we believe much of the inventory overhang that characterized the middle of the year has now been cleared,” he said.

Government shipments showed tentative stabilisation, with volumes edging up 1 per cent after earlier declines in 2025.

“Looking ahead, the outlook for 2026 is significantly more cautious,” Jessop said.

He pointed out that memory and storage costs have risen between 40 per cent and 70 per cent since the start of 2025, intensifying pressure on the market.

Omdia expects a further 60 per cent increase in mainstream PC memory and storage costs in the first quarter of 2026, compounding supply challenges.

These constraints are expected to hit the sub-$500 segment particularly hard, which includes most education and entry-level consumer devices.

“As thinner margins and lower allocation priority constrain the low-end market, smaller vendors are especially at risk of being squeezed out of the market,” he added.

Overall, US PC shipments are forecast to fall to approximately 61.9 million units in 2026, before a modest recovery in 2027.

At the vendor level, Dell surged 22 per cent year-on-year in Q4, securing the number two position with a 25 per cent market share.

This marked its strongest quarterly performance in the US in more than two years, driven largely by commercial demand.

Its growth was concentrated in the enterprise segment, supported by large refresh deals and strong momentum in premium product lines.

Meanwhile, HP retained the top position with a 25 per cent market share, despite posting a more modest 1 per cent growth rate.

Lenovo and Apple each recorded market shares in the mid-teens, maintaining competitive positions in the market.

Over the full year, however, Apple emerged as the standout performer, gaining traction particularly among US businesses.

The company reached an 11 per cent market share in 2025, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous year.

This growth was driven largely by the MacBook Air, supported by product enhancements and pricing adjustments.

Jessop said that the doubling of memory to 16GB in the M4 Air and a $100 price reduction played a key role in boosting demand.

The device’s pricing returned to the $999 level previously seen with the M1 model, enhancing its competitiveness.

He added that the introduction of the $599 Neo model is expected to significantly disrupt the entry-level segment, continuing Apple’s value-driven strategy.