Luka Doncic’s injury could mean he’s out of the NBA award race. How does that process work?
Luka Doncic is almost certainly going to win the NBA scoring title this season. And it’s now very possible that he doesn’t make the All-NBA team.
That’s rare, but it might be this season’s reality.
The roster of award-caliber players who won’t be winning awards this season continues to grow, with Doncic — the Los Angeles Lakers standout guard and MVP candidate — now out with a left hamstring injury. Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards is certain to miss the league’s 65-game award eligibility threshold as well after he was held out Thursday because of illness.
Doncic has played 64 games, so he would fall just short of the mark if his hamstring issue keeps him out for the remainder of the regular season — which has barely over a week remaining. It’s worth noting that BetMGM Sportsbook, among others, took Doncic off the list of MVP betting options following his injury Thursday.
“Health is wealth. … We’ll see what happens,” Lakers star LeBron James said.
Edwards can now only reach a maximum of 64 games as well, so he won’t be on the ballot for most major NBA awards either.
What is the 65-game rule?
It was collectively bargained — meaning the league and the players association agreed on the terms — and this is the third season of it being part of the NBA rules.
It applies to player eligibility for five awards — MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, the All-NBA Team and the All-Defensive Team. Players have to either play in 65 regular-season games (with some minutes-played minimums in there as well), or at least 62 games before suffering a “season-ending injury.”
But even if Doncic’s hamstring keeps him out for the rest of the regular season, it wouldn’t be classified as “season-ending” unless a doctor — jointly selected by the NBA and the National Basketball Players Association — says he wouldn’t be able to play again through May 31.
There is a grievance process and even a way to challenge the rule citing extraordinary circumstances, but neither would be easily utilized.
Who’s out of the award races?
Five of the league’s six highest-paid players this season — Golden State’s Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler, Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid, Milwaukee’s Giannis Antetokounmpo and Boston’s Jayson Tatum — aren’t eligible for awards. Denver’s Nikola Jokic is the exception on the highest-paid list, and he’d likely be ineligible if he misses another game as well.
There were 23 players on the list of those winning MVP, MIP, DPOY, All-NBA and All-Defense last season. Of those, at least 10 are out of the running for honors this season: Antetokounmpo, Curry, Edwards, James, Tatum, Detroit’s Cade Cunningham, Indiana teammates Tyrese Haliburton and Ivica Zubac, Utah’s Jaren Jackson Jr. and Oklahoma City’s Jalen Williams.
Another four award winners from a year ago — Jokic, Oklahoma City’s Lu Dort, Golden State’s Draymond Green and Cleveland’s Evan Mobley — aren’t at 65 games yet this season but, for now anyway, seem on pace to get there.
Will the rule be changed?
Never say never. The union wants changes to the policy, and it’s certain to come up in their conversations with the league office. But many players — and even Andre Iguodala, now the head of the players’ association — have said in recent years that the 65-game rule is a good thing.
The league doesn’t seem inclined to make a change based solely on what would appear to be an extraordinary number of award candidates not hitting the threshold in one year.
“I think it is working,” NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said last month. “I think if you look at the numbers, the pre-implementation of this rule, numbers were going in the wrong direction. I may have this a little bit off: I think the three years before we adopted this rule, almost a third of the All-NBA players had not played 80% of the games. That was a huge issue for the league.”
Scoring champion … but not All-NBA?
As we said, it’s rare, but it has happened. Twice, to be exact.
— 1968-69: Elvin Hayes won the scoring title as a rookie, then wasn’t even All-NBA — and didn’t win Rookie of the Year, either.
— 1975-76: Bob McAdoo won his third consecutive scoring title and was second in the MVP race — but didn’t make All-NBA. Players voted for MVP in those days, and McAdoo was an extremely close second behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. Dave Cowens was third in the MVP vote but got the second-team All-NBA nod at center, with Abdul-Jabbar the first-team pick.
Doncic could join that list. He was scheduled for an MRI on Friday to determine the extent of his hamstring injury. It’s not mathematically certain yet that he wins the scoring title, but it would take something extraordinary for it not to happen.
He’s averaging 33.5 points per game, with Gilgeous-Alexander at 31.6 per game. For Gilgeous-Alexander — last season’s scoring champion — to overtake Doncic, he would need to go on an unbelievable run. An example: He’d need to score 292 points over the final five games to take over the top spot, and nobody other than Wilt Chamberlain has had a five-game run like that.
Of the previous 79 scoring champions, 64 were first-team All-NBA and 13 were second-team.
Jokic is going to win the league’s rebounding and assist titles, while averaging a triple-double yet again. But he’s also not assured yet of being on the award ballots.
Why can some players win statistical titles but not win All-NBA?
The thresholds are different.
While the award mandate is 65 games in most cases, players are eligible for most statistical awards if they play in 58 games (or 70% of the season). There are different standards for some stat awards, such as field-goal percentage (minimum 300 made), free-throw percentage (minimum 125 made) and 3-point percentage (minimum 82 made).
A player can win a stat award while appearing in less than 58 games.
For example, last season, San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama played only 46 games but still won the blocked shot title. Even if he played in the minimum 58 games and recorded no blocks in the 12 games needed to reach that number he still would have been ahead of the runner-up, Utah’s Walker Kessler.
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