Bleak scenario facing UK if Iran war energy crisis does not end

The UK faces ‘fuel rationing’ if the US and Israel’s war against Iran does not end, experts have told Metro.

Iran has retaliated against the US and Israel’s deadly strikes, which killed its leader, by cutting off the Strait of Hormuz, causing an energy crisis.

As the conflict enters its fifth week, pennies are being pumped right out of people’s pockets as well as petrol.

Prices of a barrel of oil, the ingredient for producing both petrol and diesel, have ballooned, leading to petrol station closures and dry pumps.

Officials warn that the crisis could drag on for months even after the war finishes – and the political and energy experts Metro spoke with agree.

‘Essential workers may be offered prioritised access to fuel’

Anton Neike, an energy expert at the fintech company Taupia, says a ‘severe fuel supply shock’ wouldn’t happen overnight.

Drivers racing to fill up plastic bags and bottles with petrol could cause localised shortages, rather than national supplies running out.

‘Within days, the government would activate fuel prioritisation schemes, directing supplies to emergency services, food logistics and critical infrastructure,’ Neike says.

‘We would likely see a rationing rather than queues, where essential workers may be offered prioritised access to fuel.

‘For households, the impact would be less about a total loss of fuel and more about reduced mobility and significantly higher energy costs.’

The government is prepared for a worst-case scenario, with the UK having crude oil stocks and refineries that can run without imports for a while.

The only way every petrol pump in the UK could run dry would be a complete breakdown of the worldwide fuel trade, every expert tells Metro.

Keike adds: ‘The bigger unknown is public behaviour – the 2021 fuel crisis showed that panic can overwhelm the system faster than physical shortages can.’

The 2021 fuel crisis was caused by a shortage of lorry drivers, who need lengthy training and tend to be closer to retirement age. As forecourts ran out of fuel, long lines formed of motorists desperate to stockpile fuel.

Political commentator Lawrence Rosenberg says: ‘I don’t want to dismiss the possibility of a UK with no fuel, but thankfully, it’s still an incredibly unlikely scenario at this stage.’

Like Neike, Rosenberg’s biggest worry is panic buying leading to petrol deserts, which would only exacerbate people’s worries over fuel shortages.

‘For the time being, the main danger will be inflationary pressures for UK consumers, with wider impacts across food, transport and household bills looking likely,’ he warns.

After all, fuel is vital for the haulage, hospitality and food sectors that keep supermarket shelves stocked and restaurants with food to serve.

On Tuesday, the European Commission’s energy chief, Dan Jørgensen, said that even if peace were declared tomorrow, ‘we will not go back to normal in the foreseeable future’.

He agreed with advice from the International Energy Agency that people work from home, drive more slowly or take public transport just to be safe.

Said Addi, a senior energy executive and global lead for crude and fuel oil trading at the E3 Energy Group, said these tips are ‘precautionary’.

‘They may help smooth demand during periods of stress, but would typically only become relevant in a much more severe and prolonged disruption scenario,’ Addi says.

Trade bodies stressed yesterday that fuel supplies are ‘flowing normally’ and panic buying is not necessary.

Why is this happening?

Hormuz is a waterway along Iran’s coast that once carried a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil, the ingredient for producing both petrol and diesel.

Then Iran shut it down, stopping the energy supply cold and sending shockwaves across the world. Iran has said only ‘nonhostile’ ships with no ties to the US and Israel can pass through.

Experts say that while a petrol shortage is something the UK could manage, gas, however, is a different story.

Supplies of natural gas – the fuel people use to cook dinner, heat their homes and generate electricity – have also tanked because of the conflict.

On this, Neike says: ‘A lengthy major conflict like the Iran war could cause sustained price spikes that make energy unaffordable for many.’

Rosenberg, however, is optimistic. Most natural gas doesn’t come from the Middle East, but instead from Norway and the North Sea.

‘Obviously, that is gas rather than road fuel,’ Rosenberg says.

‘But it highlights that we’re – thankfully – not directly dependent on the Middle East alone in a way that would suddenly leave the country with nothing.’

When the war in the Middle East will end is uncertain. Tehran has dismissed US President Donald Trump’s 15-point peace plan, which would end Iran’s nuclear programme and reopen theStrait of Hormuz.

Iran wants recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz and a cease-fire that protects Hezbollah, the Lebanese group Iran backs.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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