How the Premier League title will be decided

The Premier League is still on its extended break, with FA Cup action taking up the first weekend back from March’s international games. The first league game is Friday, 10th April, when West Ham United host Wolverhampton Wanderers. Most fans, though, will be eagerly waiting for the weekend and the title contenders resuming their campaigns. 

The current league leaders are Arsenal, and the London club are desperate to end their agonizing 22-year wait for a 14th title. Chasing them down, though, is Manchester City. The Citizens have dominated English football in recent years, winning six of the last eight titles, and Pep Guardiola’s teams never go down without a fight. 

With Arsenal and Manchester City ready for the final stretch of the season, this is how the Premier League title will be decided. 

Title decider set for mid-April

Right now, Arsenal hold their fate in their own hands. The team have 70 points, nine clear of Manchester City. The Sky Blues have a game in hand, but even if they win, they’d still be six points behind. 

This makes the showdown between the two clubs on April 19th, played at City’s Etihad Stadium, the biggest match of the season by far. You can use Goal to check the bet365 sportsbook offers for the game, as well as all the action during the Premier League run-in. 

The game is being called a ‘title decider’, and it’s easy to see why. If Arsenal come out on top, or even manage a draw, then it’s hard to see them dropping enough points over their last five games for City to catch them. 

If Manchester City can get a home win, however, then they will be just three points behind Arsenal going into the closing games. Although City’s won’t control its own destiny, and they’ll need Arsenal to drop points, it’s enough to ramp up the pressure on the Gunners to see if they crack. 

Based on Arsenal’s recent history in the Premier League, there’s a very real chance this could happen.

Arsenal’s best chance to shed reputation

The Gunners have finished as runners-up in each of the last three Premier League seasons. In 2022/23, they were five points behind Manchester City, finished two points behind City again in 2023/24, and then ended the 2024/25 season ten points behind Liverpool. 

What’s most concerning for Arsenal fans is how late in the season the team slipped into second place. In 2022/23, for example, Arsenal led the way for 248 days before falling behind City on Matchday 33. The Gunners lost the league lead in Matchday 32 in 2023/24, dropping to second after a loss to Aston Villa and staying there despite winning their remaining games. 

Although manager Mikel Arteta has talked down his team’s history of giving up the Premier League top spot late in the season, Arsenal’s reputation for it is starting to grow in English football culture. 

This talk reared its head again when Manchester City comprehensively beat Arsenal to win the League Cup just before the international break. 

The Arsenal players will need all of their mental strength to stay focused and put this chatter to one side during the final games. If they can do that and lift the trophy, then discussions about Arsenal blowing its chances will end immediately. If the team lets City back in, however, it would solidify a reputation that’s hard to shake. 

Arsenal’s overall mental strength will be just as important as the on-field results during the last games of this season’s Premier League, and will go a long way to deciding the title. 

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