Trump's Iran-war address caused another oil spike. Here's what smart people in markets are saying.
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- Oil prices skyrocketed after Trump's latest Iran-war speech failed to provide a clear timeline for resolution.
- The speech also reversed a sharp two-day rally in stocks.
- Here's how market strategists like Mohamed El-Erian, Marko Kolanovic, and Diane Swonk reacted to the moves.
Oil prices surged after President Trump spoke about the war in Iran on Wednesday night, fueling a sharp reversal in the relief rally seen earlier in the week.
WTI crude gained as much as 14%, while Brent climbed 8% at intraday highs. Both are trading around $110 per barrel. In stocks, all three major US indexes traded in the red on Thursday morning.
Investors were expecting Trump to either emphasize deescalation in Iran, or go in the other direction and announce a ground invasion. The president's remarks ended up being somewhere in the middle, extending the timeline for US withdrawal.
Here are what some of the top voices in investing are saying about the market moves following Trump's remarks.
Marko Kolanovic, ex JPMorgan quant
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan's former quant chief, raised concerns about the market set-up as oil falls after Trump's speech.
So now that Oil is up at level prior to this rally started yesterday - there is a ~5% airpocket under stock market (and ~25% under AI momentum and memory stocks)
— Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) April 2, 2026
The short-lived relief rally in equities created an air pocket in in the market, with AI names and memory plays especially at risk, he warned.
15% jump in Oil since last night could destabilize stocks, going into a long and uncertain weekend.
— Marko Kolanovic (@markoinny) April 2, 2026
Kolanovic noted that the oil price spike could destabilize the stock market ahead of the long weekend since markets are closed on Friday.
Mohamed El-Erian, former PIMCO co-CIO
Famed investor and economist Mohamed El-Erian highlighted the V-shaped price action in oil with a 5-day chart of WTI oil prices.
Business Insider
"Whipsawed once again: That is the state of the oil market and beyond as investors react to President Trump's address to the nation regarding the Middle East War."
Gregory Brew, Eurasia Group oil analyst
Eurasia Group energy analyst Gregory Brew warned that the Strait of Hormuz closure will persist beyond Trump's latest two to three week timeline.
Hormuz closed until May, folks.
— Gregory Brew (@gbrew24) April 2, 2026
Ex JPMorgan veteran Kolanovic also highlighted the Strait of Hormuz, saying, "There is only one simple (yes/no) variable that should matter for markets and global economy now: Is oil freely flowing through Hormuz. Everything else is noise."
Adam Kobeissi from the Kobeissi Letter
"Last night was the most puzzling part of the Iran War yet," Adam Kobeissi, known for the Kobeissi Letter, said on the morning after Trump's speech.
"Just as oil and bond markets had calmed down, President Trump has sent oil prices soaring again. US oil prices have now risen over +$1/hour since President Trump's speech at 9 PM ET."
Diane Swonk, KPMG chief economist
KPMG's chief economist Diane Swonk said that the US economy could see "a mild bout of stagflation or slowflation - weak growth, rising inflation & rising unemployment."
"The closing of the Strait of Hormuz & resulting surge in oil prices is more than an oil shock," she wrote, highlighting the goods critical to the global economy that flow through the strait other than oil, like helium and fertilizer.
The economist warned that the economic impact of the war in Iran risks a "deep recession" and increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike as inflationary pressures build.