In search of a diplomatic off-ramp

A Trump apologist explained his tendency to threaten military action and then back off as a deal making tactic to frighten his enemy to accept his terms. If the threat works well and good, if not, it all depends if any resulting reputational harm was worth it.

His detractors called Trump’s pattern of behaviour a taco. For those familiar with the old Smirnoff advertisement, I thought taco was a Mexican takeaway until I discovered Smirnoff – now I know it is an acronym for ‘Trump always chickens out.’

The taco label was coined in relation to his imposition of tariffs worldwide from which he frequently backed off when the markets reacted badly.

He also backed off his plan to acquire Greenland. It is not clear if this was because Denmark sent special forces in to repel any American attempt to walk in – for whatever reason all has been quiet on the Greenland front since. 

On a number of occasions in the recent past Trump has been so sensitive about the effect of his tariff excesses on the financial markets that his habit of backing down from raising tariffs became a recognised pattern that the financial markets factored it into their trading that a financial journalist with the FT called the market phenomenon a taco.

Even a serious journalist like Channel 4’s Matt Frei could not resist mocking Trump for his climbdown last Monday saying ‘it takes two to taco’ after Trump’s unilateral climbdown from his threat to bomb Iran’s energy supply just before the financial markets opened last Monday.

Trump posted on truth-social at 7.10am New York time: “I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities …Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed and constructive conversations which will continue throughout the week I have instructed the department of war to postpone … military strikes against Iranian power plants and infrastructure for a five day period subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.” 

But the Iranians denied there had been negotiations with the Americans who they taunted were negotiating with themselves to calm the financial and oil markets. What is known is that the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Oman were desperately trying to mediate with Iran on behalf of the Gulf States to persuade it to negotiate peace with the US despite its history of negotiating with them in bad faith.

According to the former head of British intelligence, Iran is not only justified in distrusting the Americans, it also has the whip-hand despite the combined might of the US and Israel.

Iran anticipated the decapitation of its leadership and skilfully kept fighting by dispersing its command structure, counter attacking horizontally by engulfing the Gulf states and blocking the strait of Hormuz.

Last Thursday the financial markets took a huge tumble, and the price of oil rocketed and as expected Trump extended the five-day deadline for another ten days to April 6 to give the phantom negotiations a chance, failing which the US says it will obliterate Iran’s electricity supply and plunge the whole country into darkness.

By the way, threatening to destroy water and electricity supply to the civilian population could be a war crime under the fourth Geneva Convention whether as a threat by the US against Iran or the counter threat by Iran to do the same to the Gulf states.

Trump cannot believe that Iran has proved so resilient. He is winning militarily and perhaps that is good enough as a ladder to climb down but he must know there is such a thing as a Pyrrhic victory which the Iranians can regard as a defeat for America.

Trump was very angry when he was informed that taco stands for ‘Trump always chickens out.’ In America chickening out is a serious insult to level against anyone and in the macho Maga circles of his presidency it is the ultimate insult.

So it is best avoided since his tendency to back off when the markets tumble is part and parcel of democracy in what is after all a market economy. As he is very sensitive about these things it is wiser not to call his willingness to be flexible a taco.

A better Americanism is that both the US and Iran are in search of a diplomatic off-ramp – which I confess I did not know until this war. In UK an off ramp is called a slip road, whereas in the US it is the ramp you take to come off a highway. In diplomacy, it means de-escalation without defeat for either side. It is much used by journalists and commentators about a way out for Iran without loss of face as it could claim it successfully resisted a threat to its existence albeit by inflicting a high price on its people, its leadership and its neighbourhood.

As for the US and Israel they inflicted heavy military losses on Iran, but it was an illegal war without an exit strategy. In the end it seems it will be a Pyrrhic victory for Trump but that’s okay if it makes an off-ramp possible.

Alper Ali Riza is a king’s counsel in the UK and a retired part time judge