Welcome to the summer of the staycation

The Crook family is trying to ignore one thing hanging over their approaching Hawaiian vacation: the fact that it might not happen. Granted, it wouldn't be the first time they've changed plans this year. They initially wanted to go to Cancún, but they scrapped that idea due to unrest in Mexico in February. They instead pivoted to Maui, but the getaway is on the books in pencil, not pen. They intentionally booked accommodations with lax cancellation policies, and if they wind up dropping their flights, at least they'll get to keep the airline credit. "Everything's kind of hedged," says Colin Crook, 51, the California family's patriarch.

Crook's wife is a teacher, meaning there's little wiggle room for vacations outside the summer months. He does freelance PR, which is more flexible in terms of scheduling but less stable in terms of job security. "The economic uncertainty of being a laptop warrior — as an email professional or a white-collar professional right now — it's just very up in the air," he says. "With everything going on in the economy and the world, we just feel like it's like month to month, what can we do?"

Many Americans are weighing similar issues. It's a complicated moment for travel planning. The United States' war in Iran has caused major travel disruptions in the Middle East, and it's led to a spike in oil prices, making fuel and gas — and therefore flights and drives — more expensive. It's upped anxiety for consumers and workers who are already on edge about inflation, the job market, and a potential recession. Americans aren't exactly feeling the love from foreign hosts as of late, either, given the White House's antagonistic foreign policy stances and general tourism fatigue in some desirable destinations.

With the spring and summer travel seasons upon us, Americans are considering a pared-down option: staying local. Taking a getaway without actually getting away can save money, avoid travel chaos, and represent a low-lift, low-stress option for some R&R. When a lot about the world feels uncertain, there's a comforting level of security in sticking close to home. And hey, 11 US cities have World Cup matches, so you may be able to afford tickets instead of an increasingly expensive flight to France.

While hope springs eternal for a Hawaiian holiday, Crook has set a mental deadline of mid-April to decide whether to pull the plug. If he does, there are options closer to home. "We might just be camping a lot this summer, which is fine, right?" he says.

While 2025 was the year of the road trip, 2026 may be the year of the staycation.

Some Americans appear to be cooling on international jaunts, including frequent foreign travelers. Polling last fall by YouGov found that 43% of respondents who travel abroad regularly did so less over the past year, citing personal issues, economic uncertainty, and rising travel costs. A recent analysis by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, found that third-party air travel bookings from US hubs to major European cities this summer have fallen by 11% compared to last year. (The number of Europeans coming to the US is down even more sharply.)

"Consistent with prior episodes, I anticipate a move toward closer, less expensive vacation destinations will occur naturally, as a function of economic concerns driving greater affordability, and geopolitics driving some away from areas with greater perceived risk," says Bob Mann, an aviation analyst.

People aren't just thinking twice about going abroad — they're taking a hard look at where they're going Stateside. For spring break 2026, some people are planning to stick close to home or skip a trip entirely, due to economic concerns and TSA headaches. While high gas and fuel prices don't appear to be significantly affecting domestic summer travel plans yet, that could change as the warmer months approach, especially if the price at the pump stays elevated.

Many people feel stuck between a rock and a hard place: Do they book a flight now out of fear the cost equation will get worse, or do they hold off and hope for some relief? And if they do eschew the plane ticket, how good will they feel about that July road trip if gas is $4, $5, or $6 a gallon?

Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, a fuel price-tracking app, tells me the outlook is extremely murky, given the ongoing conflict in Iran and its effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil route. Gas prices are already up by $1 per gallon over the past month.

"As long as the situation continues and the Strait of Hormuz sees no meaningful improvement in terms of ships navigating through, gas prices will continue to go up. And there's really not necessarily a ceiling on how high prices will go," he says.

Cruises may not be immune to the economic context, either. Many cruise lines added fuel surcharges in 2008 to offset rising oil prices, and there are concerns they could do so again. One line, in Asia, already has, and it's in the fine print for many cruise lines that they can, whether you've booked already or not. Royal Ahmadi, the senior vice president and general manager of The Vacation Group, a leisure travel agency that focuses on cruises, tells me he thinks cruise lines are better prepared to absorb the blow. "They already pre-planned a lot of that stuff, so this way they don't have to raise the prices to accommodate that," he says. Above all, his clients are concerned about TSA lines, but he says they're generally forging ahead with bookings for now.

It's not only the direct cost of travel that's making people sweat. Americans may see their budgets tighten thanks to exceptionally high diesel prices. Since diesel is used by trucks to transport all the basics we need, it could lead to higher prices across the board — leaving families with less money to book a faraway vacation.

"The 2008 buzzword 'staycation' is coming back," De Haan says — a tough comparison given that it was a moment when the economy was in freefall and gas prices exploded.

Economics aside, there are other reasons people might want to keep their adventures a little less adventurous.

Concerns about overtourism sparked a backlash against foreign visitors in popular destinations such as Italy, Spain, and Japan. Americans: If you're frustrated to be surrounded by a bunch of other Americans in Barcelona, imagine how the Barcelonans feel. The city is doubling its tourist tax to drive home the point.

Donald Trump's foreign policy isn't helping either. The president has alienated multiple allies, including Canada and many European Union countries, over issues such as trade and defense. US strikes in the Middle East have caused global disruption. As much as foreigners are aware that individual American tourists are not responsible for the White House's decisions, they may not be thrilled to welcome a brigade of star-spangled visitors, either.

Safety concerns are playing a factor for some Americans as well. In February, drug cartel violence broke out in Mexico, leaving many travelers stranded. Of course, spending a week completely protected and locked in a high-end resort is not the worst-case scenario, but it's not ideal, either. In the wake of the US and Israel's attacks on Iran and Iran's retaliation, many people found themselves in places in the Middle East that became dangerous overnight. The US State Department recently issued a "worldwide caution" alert, warning Americans everywhere to be extra careful.

Dan Ahern, 27, tells me he's "monitoring the situation" ahead of his June trip to Armenia, which shares a short border with Iran. The New York-based communications professional's travel plans are full-speed ahead for now, though he's keeping an eye on the news and the State Department's travel advisory list on his radar. He's also worried about anti-American sentiment. "It's just uncertainty in every aspect of the travel experience right now," he says.

Not every vacation needs to be a staycation, but if there's ever a year to do it, 2026 could be it.

Many domestic destinations could use an economic boost, especially due to the drop in international tourism to the US. That means shorter lines and better deals in places such as Disney World or the Grand Canyon that are typically swamped with foreign visitors.

World Cup matches will be within striking distance, literally and figuratively, for many Americans, especially as lower-priced tickets become available. For someone in New York or New Jersey, MetLife Stadium is only a (slightly miserable) train or bus ride away.

There are no TSA lines required for finally cleaning out your closet, catching up on your reading, or visiting that cute local gallery you've been meaning to check out.

There's freedom in exploring an island in Greece. There's also freedom in knowing you don't need to respond to a 7 am email from your boss for a week, even if you're not responding from the comfort of your own bed.

Emily Stewart is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.