Infrastructure credit guarantee scheme to unlock billions

South Africa is turning to a new financing mechanism to unlock private investment into infrastructure as the government seeks ways to rebuild failing public systems while managing severe fiscal constraints.

The credit guarantee vehicle (CGV), developed through a partnership between the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), national treasury and the World Bank, is intended to reduce investment risk in large infrastructure projects and draw private capital into sectors such as electricity transmission, water systems and transport infrastructure.

The initiative will begin with an initial capitalisation of about $500million (R8 billion), including $350 million (R5.6 billion) from the World Bank. Over time, the programme is expected to mobilise as much as $10billion (R160 billion) in infrastructure investment.

The government hopes the structure will help address one of the most persistent constraints on economic growth: the country’s widening infrastructure backlog. 

Energy shortages, failing municipal water systems and congestion across the freight rail and port network, have steadily eroded productivity and investor confidence. Infrastructure investment has also declined over the past decade, limiting the state’s ability to expand and maintain critical public systems.

The new guarantee vehicle is designed to make infrastructure projects more attractive to lenders by reducing specific risks associated with project financing. 

Mpho Mokwele, the group executive for coverage and origination at the DBSA, said the mechanism will offer guarantee instruments aimed at improving the bankability of projects.

“The credit guarantee vehicle will improve bankability by providing various guarantee instruments including partial risk guarantees that cover specific risks such as payment default, political risk or early stage project uncertainties,” said Mokwele.

By reducing lender exposure to these risks, infrastructure projects are more likely to secure financing on more favourable terms. 

“This credit enhancement allows lenders to extend financing on better terms, lower interest rates, longer tenures and reduced security requirements,” he said. “By de-risking projects and standardising risk allocation, the CGV will accelerate financial close of projects.”

The programme is expected to be fully established in the fourth quarter of 2026 in time to support the first projects under the independent transmission procurement programme.

It will “expand to other sectors as the model proves successful,” Mokwele said. “The credit guarantee vehicle will benefit projects in transmission, transport, water and social infrastructure.”

The initial focus on transmission reflects the scale of the country’s electricity infrastructure challenge. The national transmission development plan envisages about 14 500km of new powerlines by 2034, at an estimated cost of roughly R440 billion, an expansion regarded as critical to connecting new renewable energy generation to the grid. The broader infrastructure landscape reveals pressures across several sectors. 

Mameetse Masemola, the head of Infrastructure South Africa, said the condition of the country’s infrastructure varies significantly, with some sectors functioning relatively well while others face serious deterioration.

“Energy infrastructure faces persistent reliability challenges while the transport network continues to struggle with ageing assets, operational inefficiencies and long standing maintenance backlogs,” said Masemola.

Water and sanitation systems are under particular strain. “Water and sanitation remains of concern and is widely regarded as being at critical risk of failure,” Masemola said, citing declining compliance with potable water standards and the continued reliance on basic sanitation systems in many communities.

Social infrastructure such as health and education facilities also face mounting pressure because of maintenance backlogs and ongoing non-compliance with sector standards. Infrastructure South Africa’s project pipeline reflects these pressures. 

Energy projects currently dominate the project pipeline, followed by water and sanitation and transport investments.

“This prioritisation reflects the country’s most pressing infrastructure priorities and underscores the need for accelerated investment,” Masemola said. 

The guarantee mechanism is intended to support these efforts by helping infrastructure projects attract long term private capital.

“With the establishment of the CGV as a government-led initiative set up by the national treasury, in partnership with the World Bank Group and the Development Bank of Southern Africa, Infrastructure South Africa shares synergies that cut across infrastructure de-risking,” she said.

The mechanism could also help ease fiscal pressure on the government by reducing reliance on direct sovereign guarantees, noted Masemola. “Credit guarantee vehicles have significant potential in reducing public debt pressures, perceived default risks and enhancing the creditworthiness of infrastructure projects.

“They should also be viewed as a complementary instrument to improve risk sharing and catalyse sustainable infrastructure development.”

For commercial lenders, the central question is whether the new mechanism will translate into a steady pipeline of projects capable of reaching financial close.

Kiresh Raju, the head of energy and infrastructure South Africa and core markets at Standard Bank corporate and investment banking, said the availability of capital has rarely been the primary obstacle to infrastructure investment.

“Commercial banks have long been willing to deploy capital into infrastructure but the risk return profile of many projects, particularly greenfield assets in transmission, water and logistics, has been difficult to price without some form of credit enhancement.”

Investor appetite itself has not been the problem. “The challenge has not been appetite; it has been bankable deal flow.”

Transmission infrastructure is expected to become the immediate focus of new investment as the government expands the national grid to support new electricity generation. 

“Electricity transmission is the immediate priority and the sector with the clearest near term pipeline,” Raju said.

Beyond energy infrastructure, other sectors are also beginning to attract greater interest from investors. “Water infrastructure is the second major opportunity,” Raju said, pointing to growing demand for investment in treatment plants, bulk water transfer systems and municipal network upgrades.

“Freight logistics, ports and rail is the third pillar,” he added, noting that financial constraints at Transnet have opened the door to greater private sector participation across the freight network. Even with growing investor interest, significant barriers remain. 

“Project preparation capacity is probably the most binding constraint. Many projects reach the market under prepared, with incomplete feasibility studies, unclear land and water use rights and poorly structured offtake agreements,” Raju said, adding that this raises transaction costs and extends timelines in ways that erode investor returns.

The economic implications are considerable. South Africa’s economy has grown at less than 1% annually over the past decade while unemployment has remained above 30%, with infrastructure bottlenecks raising costs for businesses and suppressing private sector investment.

Accelerated infrastructure investment could help reverse that trend by strengthening supply chains, improving urban service delivery and supporting industrial activity. 

Infrastructure spending also carries strong employment effects, particularly during construction phases across energy, water and logistics projects.

The credit guarantee vehicle represents one of the most ambitious attempts yet to mobilise private capital for South Africa’s infrastructure programme while limiting pressure on the public balance sheet.

Whether it succeeds will depend less on the financial design of the mechanism than on the government’s ability to convert infrastructure plans into projects capable of reaching construction.