‘Harry Potter’ Is a Major Retention Engine For HBO Max | Chart

Last week we looked at the potential platform compatibility of a Paramount+/HBO Max combo from a few different angles.  This week we’re digging into that a bit more by looking at the specific titles currently driving retention on each platform and which ones present the most opportunity to build a bridge between the two platforms in a hypothetical future where a combined Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery is looking to merge the two streamers. 

A major HBO Max retention engine is the Harry Potter Universe.  Our granular audience journey data shows that about one in four people who watch a movie in the Harry Potter franchise find the next thing to watch available on HBO Max.  This seems to validate the decision to invest in the highly anticipated Harry Potter series. However, while the Harry Potter universe is effective at keeping users on HBO Max, this is not the franchise that will build a bridge between HBO Max and Paramount+ in a future merged platform.  Our data shows that only 8% of people who watched a title in the Harry Potter franchise went on to watch something on Paramount+.

On the Paramount+ side of things Star Trek is the powerhouse retention franchise.  People who watch a Star Trek title on Paramount+ are twice as likely to watch another title on the platform as they are to watch something on HBO Max.  The downside of this in a merger scenario?  Star Trek fans may be less likely to see the value in a combined platform.  Their viewing preferences show they are much more likely to remain on Paramount+ than to find something to watch on HBO Max.

Taylor Sheridan’s growing body of work has been a financial boon for Paramount+, approaching a billion dollars in streaming revenue for the platform alone.  But these audiences aren’t Paramount+ loyalists.  People who watched a Sheridanverse title were just as likely to then watch something available on HBO Max as they were to find something on Paramount+.  The Sheridanverse would likely be a cornerstone of a combined Paramount+/HBO Max and its fans would see value in a combined platform of content that they are already watching.

What are the titles that will be most impactful in bridging the gap between these platforms?  That’s the key question to ask for a company that wants to minimize churn and prove the value of a combined catalog to subscribers.

Interestingly the unscripted content on HBO Max has some of the largest audience flows to Paramount+.  This confirms what many have sensed intuitively: Discovery+ content has been an awkward fit on HBO Max.  Many of the people watching unscripted Discovery content are leaving to watch content on other platforms rather than finding a natural home on HBO Max.  This is a potential vulnerability in a world where HBO Max is a standalone platform but an opportunity for a platform looking to integrate with Paramount+.

To put a number on this, of the top 20% of titles on HBO Max that have the highest shared audience with titles on Paramount+, 47% of those titles are reality series.  This genre represents only about a quarter of the titles on HBO Max which means it is overperforming in terms of having a larger overlap with Paramount+.  

Moreover, this pattern looks broad based.  The top reality series on HBO Max sending the largest share of their audience to Paramount+ include shows from multiple WBD properties.  For example “Down Home Fab” (HGTV), “American Chopper” (Discovery), and “Ciao House” (Food Network) all had a greater than 20% audience overlap with titles on Paramount+.  A bridge between the two platforms already exists with shows like these, which will be critical in any future effort to merge the two streamers.

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