Primary voter turnout numbers — high for Democrats, low for Republicans — may guide future trends

The trend in special elections around the country for the past several months has shown spiking Democratic voter turnout and tanking Republican turnout. And some preliminary primary election results from earlier this month show the same trend here.

What follows is a quick look at governor’s race turnout in the state’s five most populous counties. Not all votes were counted when I wrote this, so the numbers are accurate as of early Friday. But the final count will be very close to what I have here.

Also, I’m not saying that these results are necessarily predictive of the November election. Things change in politics, and sometimes folks cross over to cast votes in competitive local elections and go back to where they were in the general. But the primary turnout numbers have been a broad sign of things to come for quite a while, particularly in the suburbs, where we are looking today. The Republican Party has moved far to the other side of social issues important to suburban voters and President Donald Trump’s unpopularity has been further driving that point home.

In DuPage County, the preliminary number of Republicans casting ballots for governor fell almost 32% compared to four years ago.

The DuPage Republican drop-off has been steady for years, coinciding with the party’s ever-shrinking success in the general election. Last week’s preliminary primary turnout in the former Republican bastion is about 49% below 2014 — the last year the state elected a Republican governor.

Democratic turnout in DuPage, on the other hand, is so far up a whopping 45% compared to four years ago. Democratic primary turnout has greatly increased in the county since 2014, which was a horrible year for Democratic turnout throughout the state. That year was President Barack Obama’s second midterm and Gov. Pat Quinn went on to lose to Bruce Rauner in the general. DuPage Democratic turnout in the governor’s race this year is up 586% (that’s not a typo) from 2014. And unlike some other jurisdictions, DuPage Democratic turnout was significantly higher this spring (25%) than in the primary held during Trump’s first midterm election.

Needless to say, those numbers cannot be providing any comfort to the shrinking number of Republican legislators and local officials who represent part or all of that county.

The same goes for Lake County, where Republican primary gubernatorial turnout has collapsed by more than 48% compared to four years ago, while Democratic turnout has risen by more than 27%. Lake is another suburban county with a disappearing general election GOP.

Republican primary turnout in Lake has dropped every four years since 2010, and the preliminary numbers show that 59% fewer Republicans cast ballots for governor last week than in ’10.

Lake County Democratic primary turnout so far is slightly above the previous record number recorded in 2018. And it’s up 501% compared to the party’s very bad year in 2014.

Will County’s Republican primary vote for governor has so far dropped more than 33% compared to four years ago, while Democratic turnout has increased by about 33%.

This year’s Democratic primary turnout in Will County is slightly down from Trump’s second midterm in 2018, but it’s up 282% from Obama’s miserable second midterm. Will’s Republican turnout, as measured here by votes for governor, is down 31% from 2014.

Kane County has been trending Democratic ever since Trump’s first midterm in 2018. And even though about 4,000 more people voted for Republican gubernatorial candidates in 2022 than those who voted Democratic, Gov. JB Pritzker went on to win that county in November by 10 points. It’s a good reason to note again why this measurement isn’t always an accurate predicter. Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin was running for governor as a Republican that year, which likely explains the anomaly.

This year, preliminary numbers show that more than twice as many Democrats voted for an unopposed governor versus those who voted in the contested Republican gubernatorial race (46K to not quite 23K). Kane Republican votes fell by 26% versus 2022. Democratic votes rose by a gigantic 71%.

Suburban Cook County long ago slipped away from significant Republican influence. Republican primary votes for governor are so far 33% below 2022, while Democratic turnout is up 41%.

The suburban Cook Republican primary gubernatorial vote is down 48% from its most recent high-water mark in 2014.

Again, this is not a prediction. But legislative Republicans are right to be afraid of another suburban wipeout.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.