The “Extremely Dangerous and Unpredictable” situation in Middle East and Beyond

The Human Rights council, Geneva.
 
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk in an address to the Human Rights Council.

By Volker Turk
GENEVA, Mar 27 2026 (IPS)

More than three weeks after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, the conflict is spreading and intensifying in the region and beyond, with civilians bearing the brunt. Families across the region marked Eid and Nowruz under fire, in fear and uncertainty, and facing further hardship.

The situation is extremely dangerous and unpredictable, and has created chaos across the region, affecting Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, and beyond.

Since the start of hostilities, Iran has launched large numbers of drones and missiles against military bases, residential areas and energy facilities across these Gulf States and Jordan. Strikes and interceptions have caused terrible harm to civilians, including dozens of deaths and injuries.

Meanwhile, ports, energy facilities, airports, water infrastructure, and diplomatic premises have suffered damage, disrupting essential services and increasing risks to all civilians.

Many of the strikes in this conflict raise serious concerns under international law, which prohibits attacks targeting civilians and their infrastructure, and attacks on military targets where harm to civilians is disproportionate.

I also need to underscore the grave ramifications of this conflict for a number of other countries in the broader region, including Iraq and Syria, as well as the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

Recent missile strikes near nuclear sites in both Israel and Iran underscore the immense danger of further escalation. States are flirting with unmitigated catastrophe.

Civilians in Lebanon are caught up in a human rights and humanitarian disaster. Government figures detail more than one thousand people killed by Israeli military strikes in the past three weeks, including 79 women, 118 children and 40 medical workers. I am deeply concerned by attacks that have hit apartment buildings, killing entire families in some cases.

Meanwhile, Iran and Hezbollah continue to launch missiles and drones into Israel, also causing loss of life, damage to civilian infrastructure, and displacement.

Inside Iran, civilians seek shelter from airstrikes across all 31 provinces of the country. According to Iranian government figures, some 1,400 civilians have been killed and more than 20,000 injured.

There is a growing pattern of strikes affecting residential areas, civilian infrastructure, and other sites that are protected under international law. Housing, hospitals, schools, cultural sites, transport networks and energy infrastructure have all been hit.

As Iranians shelter from these strikes, they also face another wave of cruel state repression, including arbitrary arrests, executions, intimidation and censorship. The internet has been shut down for more than three weeks.

This conflict is also having very serious ramifications beyond the region.

The disruption by Iran of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is affecting global supply chains, with dire implications for some of the world’s poorest people.

Fossil fuels, medicine, food, and fertilizers are just some of the vital goods that are being held up at sea. This is disrupting global energy markets and supplies; and has the potential to create serious hunger and healthcare crises. The World Food Programme warns that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute hunger unless the conflict ends soon.

The effects are most destructive in lower-income countries, particularly across South Asia. Developing economies are in general less able to withstand price shocks.

Several States have already introduced energy-saving measures. Bangladesh, for example, has closed universities and introduced fuel rationing, while the Philippines has introduced a state of national energy emergency. The crisis could also reduce the flow of remittances from migrant workers that keep families and communities afloat.

There are ongoing attempts to mitigate the closure of the Strait by releasing oil reserves and easing sanctions. But they have not made a significant difference, and the wider consequences remain unpredictable.

Analysis by UNCTAD shows that insurance premiums and marine fuel costs are surging, increasing prices across the board and around the world.

The UN’s Economic and Social Commission for West Asia assesses that the conflict has already caused some $63 billion in economic losses across the Arab region.

Conflict can never be ordinary or standard. But this conflict has an unprecedented power to ensnare countries across borders and around the world. The complex dynamics could ignite further national, regional or global crises at any moment, with an appalling impact on civilians and people everywhere.

The only guaranteed way to prevent this is to end the conflict, and I urge all States, and particularly those with influence, to do everything in their power to achieve this.

Our deeply interconnected world requires that all countries recommit to full respect for international law, and the UN Charter.

We cannot go back to war as a tool of international relations.

When some powerful States are trying to weaken the multilateral system, we need the rest – the vast majority – to stand up for it. While the conflict continues, I call on all parties to ensure full respect for international humanitarian and human rights law.

Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure must end. If they are deliberate, such attacks may constitute war crimes.

I stand in solidarity with civilians across the region, who are crying out for peace.

IPS UN Bureau