Where Are the Houthis?
Where Are the Houthis?
The Yemeni militant group has good reasons to delay joining the war on Iran’s side.
Unable to match the might of the militaries who have long opposed and threatened them, Iran has relied, in part, on the forward deterrent of its proxies and partners in the region. Hamas has been effectively removed from the picture, but within days of the bombs falling on Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and militias allied with Iran in Iraq came to Tehran’s aid. Hezbollah has reportedly launched 779 waves of attacks since the war on Iran began. Over 70 percent of those attacks have used missiles. Iraqi militias have launched drone strikes on U.S. bases in the region. But, although they have expressed solidarity with Iran, Yemen’s heavily armed, reliable, and plucky Houthis have, so far, kept their missile launchers silent and stayed out of the war.
In recent wars, the Houthis have immediately come to the aid of their partners and friends. In the wake of October 7, the Houthis shut down oil shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea and sent waves of missiles and drones toward Israel. During their two-year blockade, the Houthis fired hundreds of missiles and drones at U.S. warships and commercial oil tankers. During the 12-day war on Iran last June, the Houthis expanded their attacks on behalf of the “Iranian people” and, in coordination with Tehran, launched ballistic missile strikes on Israel.
In the current war, however, that pattern has not repeated itself. But there are signs that, under the right conditions, that may be about to change. Despite intense efforts by American and Saudi diplomats to keep the Houthis out of the war, there are unconfirmed reports that, if certain criteria are met, the Houthis may be on the verge of entering it.
There are unverified reports that Iran and Hezbollah are increasing their pressure on the Houthis to enter the war and that it could happen soon. Iran’s military has reportedly told local media that, if the U.S. launches a ground invasion of Iran, the Houthis could blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. On March 24, an Iranian military source pointed out that “The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is considered one of the world’s strategic straits.” Without naming the Houthis, he said, “If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands…. Iran has both the will and the ability to create a completely credible threat against it.” The Houthi foreign ministry released a statement saying, “The Yemeni Republic is following developments and will take the appropriate step regarding them and will not stand with arms crossed.”
The imminent entry of the Houthis has not been confirmed. But rhetoric from the Houthis has intensified, and there are signs of increasing preparedness. They appear to be recruiting additional fighters and sending reinforcements near the Red Sea. In the days leading up to the war, the Houthis moved missile launchers and radars to the coast. On March 5, the Houthis’ leader, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, announced, “Regarding military escalation and action, our fingers are on the trigger at any moment should developments warrant it.” Houthi politburo member Mohammed al-Bukhaiti said that “Yemen joining the conflict is only a matter of time.” He has said that “the decision to stand alongside Iran has already been made.”
There are several possible explanations for the Houthis’ delayed entrance into the war, assuming it comes at all. The Houthis have a deep concern for Iranian interests and Iranian support for them, but they also need to be concerned with their own very complex domestic interests.
Annelle Sheline, Research Fellow for the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told The American Conservative that there is also the question of self-preservation. Unlike Iran and Hezbollah who, though their leaders are very important, can survive leadership transitions, the Houthis’ “system of government does rely heavily on the Al Houthi family, given their prominent role as descendants of the Prophet Mohammed.” Iran and Hezbollah have had their leaders assassinated; decapitation strikes could conceivably be a more existential blow to the Houthis. The group’s officials say they have been alerted that the cellphones of political leaders are under surveillance. Fearing assassination, they have been counselled to stay out of public view.
There is also the possibility, though there is no evidence, that Iran is holding back the formidable power of the Houthis until it can be most effective. It is possible that Iran is deploying its other partners first to exhaust missile interceptors and will then unleash the Houthis and their powerful long-range missiles in coordination with Iranian missiles at a time when key targets are most vulnerable.
The Houthis entering the war could change everything. They can help Iran in its two key objectives: strikes on military targets to make the war painful and expensive for America and Israel, and strikes designed to cause economic damage by cutting off oil shipments.
The Houthis have formidable long-range capacity. But they also have the unique capacity to help Iran close off oil laneways. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, some Middle Eastern oil can partially circumnavigate that constraint by sailing through the strait at Bab el-Mandeb that links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis have proven that they can shut down that route. Coupled with the 20 percent of global oil Iran has shut off at the Strait of Hormuz, Houthi entry into the war and the closing of the strait of Bab el-Mandeb would turn off the tap on 40 percent of the world’s oil. The U.S. “should be careful not to add another strait to their problem,” an Iranian military source said. “If the Americans want to think of a solution for the Strait of Hormuz with stupid measures,” he added, “their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs.”
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