Exploring The Chicago Bears’ Fatal Flaw When Drafting Edge Rushers
There is a very real chance the Chicago Bears will draft an edge rusher with their 1st round pick next month. If that happens, it would be the ninth time in the Super Bowl era that has happened. It is worth noting that none of the previous eight selected ever made a single Pro Bowl with the team. Not once. For such a critical position, that is a miserable hit rate. It goes a long way in explaining why the Bears have needed innovative defensive schemes like Buddy Ryan’s “46” blitz or Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2. Both can overcome the absence of a good edge rusher.
So what gives? Why have the Bears been so bad at this? Plenty of reasons will be listed. They have a poor eye for talent. Their developmental strategies have stunk. All carry valid points. However, the simplest explanation is that the team has too often focused on upside rather than proven production. I went back and looked at several of the top pass rushers from the past couple of decades to see whether their college production carried over to the NFL. For this, I used the Sacks Per Game metric. You’ll find that most of the biggest names averaged at least 0.50 sacks per game in college.
| Player | College (Draft Year) | Career Sacks | Games Played | Sacks Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Freeney | Syracuse (2002) | 34.0 | 21 | 1.61 |
| Terrell Suggs | Arizona St (2003) | 44.0 | 36 | 1.22 |
| Robert Mathis | Alabama A&M (2003) | 44.0 | 41 | 1.07 |
| Simeon Rice | Illinois (1996) | 44.5 | 44 | 1.01 |
| Michael Strahan | Texas Southern (1993) | 41.5 | 44 | 0.94 |
| Jared Allen | Idaho State (2004) | 38.5 | 41 | 0.94 |
| Julius Peppers | N. Carolina (2002) | 30.5 | 34 | 0.90 |
| Myles Garrett | Texas A&M (2017) | 32.5 | 36 | 0.90 |
| Elvis Dumervil | Louisville (2006) | 32.0 | 44 | 0.73 |
| Von Miller | Texas A&M (2011) | 33.0 | 47 | 0.70 |
| Joey Bosa | Ohio State (2016) | 26.0 | 38 | 0.68 |
| John Abraham | S. Carolina (2000) | 23.5 | 36 | 0.65 |
| Demarcus Ware | Troy (2005) | 27.5 | 44 | 0.63 |
| Nick Bosa | Ohio State (2019) | 17.5 | 29 | 0.60 |
| Khalil Mack | Buffalo (2014) | 28.5 | 48 | 0.59 |
| Justin Houston | Georgia (2011) | 20.0 | 36 | 0.56 |
| T.J. Watt | Wisconsin (2017) | 11.5 | 22 | 0.52 |
| Aidan Hutchinson | Michigan (2022) | 18.5 | 43 | 0.43 |
The Chicago Bears can’t get lost in the measurables.
Before anybody asks, yes, there are exceptions to the rule. Danielle Hunter (0.12), Micah Parsons (0.25), and Travon Walker (0.26) are some recent examples of players who didn’t produce in college but took off in the NFL. Often, you’ll find this is less about the light switch going on and more about how they were used. Parsons wasn’t a full-time edge rusher in college. Hunter had lots of tackles for losses, but just not many sacks. Walker played a hybrid linebacker/edge-rusher role. Still, the rule holds. Since 1980, the Bears have selected seven 1st round edge rushers. Only two crossed the 0.50 sacks per game threshold. None were 0.60 or higher.
| Player | Year (Pick) | College | Career Sacks | Games | Sacks Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Thierry | 1994 (#11) | Alcorn State | 13.0 | 22 | 0.59 |
| Michael Haynes | 2003 (#14) | Penn State | 25.5 | 46 | 0.55 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2016 (#9) | Georgia | 17.0 | 37 | 0.46 |
| Al Harris | 1979 (#9) | Arizona St | 19.0 | 44 | 0.43 |
| Shea McClellin | 2012 (#19) | Boise State | 20.5 | 48 | 0.43 |
| Trace Armstrong | 1989 (#11) | Florida/ASU | 15.0 | 44 | 0.34 |
| Alonzo Spellman | 1992 (#22) | Ohio State | 9.0 | 33 | 0.27 |
Even the two who reached the mark come with asterisks. Thierry played at Alcorn State, an FCS school at the time. Haynes got most of his sacks (15) in his final year at Penn State, making him a one-year wonder. Floyd was close at 0.46, eventually becoming a quality rusher in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Harris and McClellin were big disappointments. Spellman never lived up to his potential.
The Bears must think about striking early.
There is lots of talent in the 2026 draft class, but only five players cross that 0.50 threshold based on their college production. Most of the others fall into the low-floor-high-ceiling category. In other words, buyer beware. Two of those five names are almost certain to be gone before the Chicago Bears pick at #25 overall. One isn’t big enough for defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. That leaves two choices who fit the criteria: Clemson defensive end T.J. Parker and Illinois defensive end Gabe Jacas.
| Player | School | Career Sacks | Games Played | Sacks Per Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bailey | Texas Tech | 29.0 | 46 | 0.63 |
| Trey Moore | Texas / UTSA | 30.5 | 57 | 0.54 |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | Miami (FL) | 20.5 | 38 | 0.54 |
| T.J. Parker | Clemson | 21.5 | 40 | 0.54 |
| Gabe Jacas | Illinois | 27.0 | 50 | 0.54 |
| R Mason Thomas | Oklahoma | 17.0 | 42 | 0.40 |
| Dani Dennis-Sutton | Penn State | 18.5 | 51 | 0.36 |
| Romello Height | Texas Tech | 16.5 | 52 | 0.32 |
| Keldric Faulk | Auburn | 10.0 | 38 | 0.26 |
| Mason Reiger | Wisconsin | 13.0 | 51 | 0.25 |
| Zion Young | Missouri | 11.5 | 46 | 0.25 |
| Jaishawn Barham | Michigan | 12.0 | 48 | 0.25 |
| George Gumbs Jr. | Florida | 11.0 | 44 | 0.25 |
| Keyron Crawford | Auburn | 11.0 | 47 | 0.23 |
| Joshua Josephs | Tennessee | 9.5 | 48 | 0.20 |
| LT Overton | Alabama | 7.0 | 49 | 0.14 |
For all the buzz about Zion Young, Keldric Faulk, and Dani Dennis-Sutton, none of them produced at a level anywhere close to the desired level. Could they become exceptions in the NFL? Sure. It’s happened before. However, the odds aren’t nearly as favorable as one would think. The Bears are proof of that. They’ve been going after the toolsy players for long enough. Maybe it’s time to lean a little more into the productive ones.