Series Preview: Mets Open Season Against New-Look Pirates

Baseball is back, ladies and gentlemen! What a beautiful sentence. The New York Mets begin their season at home against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that added more talent than many expected this offseason. Starting pitching has been the Pirates’ biggest strength, but they brought in a couple of bats to try to make a push in the National League Central. On the other hand, the Mets had an up-and-down winter. It began with some hard-hitting departures, but Steve Cohen and David Stearns went out and filled their biggest needs. Excitement is in the air at Citi Field with the roster they have put together. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

• Thursday: Paul Skenes (10-10, 1.97 ERA in 2025) vs. Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA in 2025): Skenes enters the 2026 season as the betting favorite to win the Cy Young in the National League for the second consecutive season. He is coming off a few strong performances in the WBC with Team USA, allowing just one earned run in 8 1/3 innings. Skenes took the no-decision in his only start against the Mets last year in mid-May. Peralta will take the ball at Citi Field for the first time as a member of the Mets on Opening Day. Peralta is quite familiar with the Pirates as a former Milwaukee Brewer, pitching to a 3.36 ERA in 99 innings against Pittsburgh. Peralta is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.70 ERA in four career starts at Citi Field.
• Saturday: Mitch Keller (6-15, 4.19 ERA in 2025) vs. David Peterson (9-6, 4.22 ERA in 2025): Keller’s name has been in trade rumors for a number of years. The Pirates had interest at last season’s trade deadline, but decided to keep him around. Keller has good career numbers against the Mets, pitching to a 2.06 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. Peterson has a point to prove in 2026 after the way things unfolded for him down the stretch last season. He was the ace of the rotation in the first half, but the consistency quickly dwindled after the All-Star break. The Pirates gave Peterson fits in 2025, as he allowed seven earned runs over 10 2/3 innings.
• Sunday: Carmen Mlodzinski (5-8, 3.55 ERA in 2025) vs. Nolan McLean (5-1, 2.06 ERA in 2025): Mlodzinski is not a name many expected to see pitching in the first series of the year for the Pirates. With Jared Jones on the IL to begin the season, an opportunity has been presented to him. Length will be a key talking point with Mlodzinski. He completed at least five innings in just three of his 12 big league starts last season. McLean burst onto the scene in the second half of last season, making eight starts down the stretch for the Mets. He couldn’t have been much better, allowing two earned runs or less in seven of those eight starts. McLean went 2-0 with an astonishing 0.37 ERA in four starts at Citi Field in 2025.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The storylines are endless as the Mets begin their 2026 season. Players making their team debuts, players making their MLB debuts. The list goes on and on. My focus is on the team as a whole, but more specifically, how they execute late in games when trailing. Last season, they didn’t win a single game when entering the ninth inning with a deficit. That was one of the many reasons why they missed the playoffs, despite having the second-highest payroll in baseball.

Changes were necessary, and changes were made. Will their roster revamp in terms of personnel result in more wins and a playoff berth? Time will tell. But with the additions of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco, the Mets are clearly putting an emphasis on putting the ball in play, especially in high-leverage situations. Let’s see if those new additions make a significant impact in that department.

PREDICTION

The Pirates are a better team than many will give them credit for. With an improved lineup, they have the talent to be in the mix for a playoff spot in 2026. That being said, the Mets are the better team opening the season at home. Citi Field will play a role in setting the tone for this season. I expect a game or two to be close late, but the Mets will take two of three.

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