Why Trump, Iran seem light-years apart on any possible deal to end the war
The fog of war usually refers to maddening confusion about what is happening on the battlefield.
But right now we have the fog of peace talks: Are they real, are they going anywhere, and which side is telling the truth?
It’s clear that President Trump, insisting he can end the war with Iran whenever he wants, is looking for an exit ramp to declare victory and get out.
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It’s just as clear that the theocratic dictatorship–at least the leaders who survived the attacks that killed the ayatollah and many others–are digging in their heels. They will claim victory just for surviving the military onslaught that has decimated their navy and air force.
When Trump said there were back-channel talks–granting a five-day delay on threats to obliterate its energy facilities–the Iranians flatly denied it. Some prominent pundits doubted Trump. But then Tehran said yeah, well, there have been some secret contacts.
Now we have starkly different accounts of what’s going down.
Trump says the talks have been "very good." The other day, in fact, he depicted the mullahs as making a major concession.
The Iranians have given the U.S. "a very big present, worth a tremendous amount of money," Trump said. He was cagey about it, but revealed under questioning by CBS’s Ed O’Keefe that it involved the flow of oil and the Strait of Hormuz.
At the same time, Iranian military spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari taunted the administration in a video: "Has the level of your internal conflict reached the point where you are negotiating with yourselves?"
"Do not call your defeat an agreement," he said.
And for good measure: "Someone like us will never come to terms with someone like you. Not now, not ever."
Now some of this is undoubtedly done for domestic consumption. But the two sides sound like they couldn’t be farther apart.
The president has delivered a flurry of mixed messages on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway where an Iranian blockade has choked off one-fifth of the world’s oil traffic. He has said that the situation will work itself out. He has said our European allies (who refused to join our effort to intervene) should resolve this since the U.S. doesn’t rely on the strait. And he has also said that opening Hormuz is a top American priority.
Iran, which has sprinkled the strait with mines, told the U.N. that the waterway is open to any country not backing the U.S. and Israeli attacks. But other nations, and their insurance companies, are reluctant to send billion-dollar tankers into such troubled waters.
The impasse is hurting the president here at home, where soaring oil costs have boosted gas prices and tanked the stock market, shrinking the value of all those 401Ks. When Trump announced the bombing pause Monday, the market snapped back for a day. If there’s one thing Wall Street hates, it’s uncertainty.
Despite signaling that the war is practically over because "we’ve won," Trump just dispatched at least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne to the Middle East, along with the USS Tripoli, carrying 2,200 Marines.
Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has been playing the bad cop, vowing if there’s no deal "to destroy the enemy as viciously as possible."
What’s equally unclear is who we’re talking to, with Pakistan playing the intermediary role. Trump has talked about regime change, though there seems no chance of that, and there’s chatter about doing business with the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Mohammad Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guard commander who at times has taken a diplomatic approach with the West.
But with so many leaders killed and Ayatollah Khamenei’s son in hiding, no one knows how much influence Ghalibaf, a failed presidential candidate, still has.
Just yesterday, Ghalibaf, invoking the Israeli prime minister, warned the administration against sacrificing American soldiers for "Netanyahu’s delusions," according to al-Jazeera. That hardly sounds conciliatory.
What’s more, the Iranians are famously difficult to negotiate with, going back on promises and moving the goalposts. Just ask Jimmy Carter.
Trump tore up the Obama administration’s nuke deal with the Iranians when he first took office, and now says he wants an agreement in which they renounce the pursuit of nuclear weapons. That is extremely unlikely, although the U.S. attacks last June and this month have obviously crippled their efforts.
My sense is that Trump doesn’t want to bomb Iran’s oil and gas facilities, which would clearly extend the war and widen a conflict that has already spread to the surrounding Arab countries. Nor does he want to be seen as backing down. No wonder he’s postponed a showdown.
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"President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said yesterday.
The Iranians don’t want a temporary pause in the war, unnamed officials told the New York Times, out of concern that the U.S. and Israel would use the time to rebuild their forces for further airstrikes.
Iran’s only real weapon right now is drones, a few of which have caused damage in Israel, while others are aimed at U.S. military bases in the region. One drone sparked a huge fire at the Kuwaiti airport.
A report by the state broadcaster, Press TV, confirms that Iran won’t accept the U.S. proposal for a cease-fire. In its counter-offer, the dictatorship would also keep sole control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Among other demands, according to Press TV: Guarantees that the attacks on Iran won’t be started up again, and the payment of war damages and reparations. Iran wants any deal extended to Hezbollah, its Lebanese proxy, which fired rockets at Israel when the war began, triggering an invasion of southern Lebanon.
Another state media outlet, Fars News Agency, quoted a source as saying of a cease-fire: "It is not logical to enter into such a process with those who violate the agreement."
The president has lashed out at the media for painting a relentlessly negative picture of a war that has largely been an American triumph. But it turns out that covering the endgame — if that’s what this is — is equally challenging.
At the moment, it looks like Trump wants a deal more than Iran, given the war’s unpopularity at home and its damage to the economy. For an America First candidate who ran against foreign wars, the prospect of a long, Iraq-style quagmire would be the worst possible outcome.
"Is the U.S. Repeating the Mistakes That Led to Forever Wars?" the Wall Street Journal asked yesterday.
But the coverage of the latest rhetorical sniping accurately reflects the vagueness of a process that may not deserve to be called negotiations.
It is, above all, a blinding fog.