Accuweather's 2026 Hurricane Forecast Predicts Fewer Storms, But One Big Risk

Warmer weather means one thing for the continental United States: hurricane season. And as the seasons change, the first official forecast is out via Accuweather, warning millions of what to expect this summer and fall.

First, a bit of potential good news. Accuweather is predicting 11 to 16 named storms, with four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). It forecasts three to five direct impacts on the United States.

Why is this good news? It's near or below historical averages, which typically run 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. Still, that doesn't mean the season is risk free. A single storm can always prove devastating, depending on timing, location, and development conditions.

2025 was considered a near-average season by NOAA, producing 13 named storms with five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. There was no direct hurricane landfall in the United States, snapping a decade-long streak. Still, Hurricane Erin, which stayed offshore, caused significant coastal erosion and property damage thanks to high swells.

El Niño Is the Biggest Factor of the Season

The reason that Accuweather expects lower storm totals: El Niño. The cyclical pattern, which sees ocean waters warm in the Eastern Pacific, has a major impact on North American weather. For hurricanes, it creates a wind shear in the Atlantic, particularly later in the season, that inhibits the development of storms. This could mean fewer tropical storms in the second half of the season.

The wind shear effect could be supercharged even further by a "Super El Niño," defined as a rise in Eastern Pacific Ocean temperatures of at least 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above the long-term average.

Warm Water Could Lead to Rapid Intensification

Still, storms that do form could rapidly become dangerous thanks to warm ocean waters in the Atlantic.

“This year we are very concerned about rapid intensification, very similar to the last couple of years," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "The risk of fast-strengthening storms and hurricanes is tied to the abundance of warm water, which serves as the fuel for storms."

This extends to waters deeper below the surface. "Those waters are also exceptionally, exceptionally warm," DaSilva said. "That is why once again we are very concerned about rapid intensification this upcoming hurricane season."

Based on historical data of seasons with similar weather patterns, Accuweather predicts that the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast as well as North and South Carolina face the greatest risk of a landfalling hurricane this season. One area with a lower potential risk is Coastal Texas, although any area could see impacts.

When Is 2026 Hurricane Season?

As NOAA notes, 2026 hurricane season is set to start on Monday, June 1, and run through Monday, November 30.

"It's very important that everybody from South Texas all the way to Maine prepares equally for each and every hurricane season, regardless of what the official forecast is," DaSilva said. "Even if it's expected to be a slightly below average hurricane season, we can still see major hits across the United States."