Local election results show the hurdles along the path to power for French far right

Despite achieving historic scores and taking control of over 60 municipalities in the French local elections, the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) will be disappointed by its failure to make a breakthrough in the larger towns and cities. The headlines coming out of France after the second round of elections on March 22 tell of the resilience of the mainstream centre left and centre right, whose candidates held on to every major city hall in the country.

The two parties that dominate France’s political extremes – the far-right RN, led by Marine le Pen and Jordan Bardella, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed, LFI) – made some gains in smaller towns. But they failed to capture a single one of the large cities.

This matters because France goes to the polls again in 2027 to elect its next president. The local elections were widely seen as a dress rehearsal – and the results expose the limits of both parties’ strategies. For the RN, the failure to break through in cities such as Marseille and Toulon — combined with the refusal of the centre-right Les Républicains (LR) to enter into alliances with RN candidates — shows that, for the far right, the path to the Élysée Palace remains highly complicated.

For LFI, a similar inability to translate national prominence into local power raises questions about Mélenchon’s capacity to unite the left ahead of next year’s presidential campaign.

For the RN, the dream result would have been a win in Marseille. Capturing France’s second city would have been a massive statement of intent. After the first round of the local elections on March 16, however, a victory in the port city seemed unlikely – especially after the refusal of the centre-right candidate, Martine Vassal, to enter into any alliance with the RN.

Vassal’s decision is emblematic of one of the big lessons of these elections: the centre-right LR has resisted the temptation to ally itself with the far right, even where doing so might have delivered local power. The centre-left mayor of Marseille, Benoît Payan, drew his own red line, refusing to merge his electoral list with LFI. He still held on to his job comfortably, winning 54% in the second round, well ahead of the RN’s Franck Allisio on 40%. The double refusal in Marseille – the centre right rejecting the far right, the centre left rejecting the radical left – encapsulates the resilience of the political mainstream in France’s major cities.

Battle for credibility

While taking Marseille was always going to be a long shot, the RN had invested heavily in winning back another important port city on the south coast: Toulon. This is the city where in 1995 the party, then called the Front National (FN) and led by Marine Le Pen’s late father, Jean-Marie, made a historic breakthrough, taking control of the council. This was the first time the far right had captured a major French city since the second world war.

But the FN mayor, Jean-Marie Le Chevallier, endured a disastrous time in office. He fell out with his own city councillors and in 1999 ended up quitting the party after a spat with Le Pen (père). The failure to manage Toulon city council (Le Chevallier scored less than 8% when he was up for reelection in 2001) became an albatross around the party’s neck for many years to come.

As we have argued in our research on the RN in local government, overcoming this reputation for incompetence has been an important goal for all the party’s mayors elected since 2014. Recapturing Toulon would have been highly symbolic. But the RN candidate (and current MP) Laure Lavalette, despite leading after the first round, eventually fell short with 48% in the runoff against centre-right incumbent Josée Massi.

The result shows the enduring power of the front républicain: the tactical alliance of voters from across the political spectrum to keep out the far right.

Nevertheless, RN supporters could console themselves with some important victories in smaller towns across the south including Carcassonne, Menton and Orange – another municipality originally captured by the party in 1995. The RN also held on to the vast majority of the towns it was already governing, several of which it won outright in the first round. This includes Perpignan, still the largest town run by the party. In these established strongholds, RN mayors have worked to normalise the party’s reputation and professionalise its approach to local governance.

The success of this strategy is shown by the re-election of the longstanding mayor of Hénin-Beaumont, Steeve Briois, with a commanding 78% of the vote in the first round. His success seems to have had a kind of “coattail effect” across the former coal mining basin in France’s far north – with RN victories in a number of neighbouring towns. The consolidation of a solid block of RN-run municipalities in northern France, alongside those in its traditional heartland of the south-east, is one of the most striking outcomes of these elections.

Signs of things to come?

Yet arguably the most significant result for the far right came in a battle between former allies on the centre right. In Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, Éric Ciotti – who broke with the centre-right LR in 2024 to ally himself with the RN ahead of the legislative elections – defeated his former mentor, the outgoing mayor Christian Estrosi.

Ciotti’s victory raises an uncomfortable question for LR. Even as the party nationally held the line against allying with the far right, one of its most prominent former figures has demonstrated that crossing that line can be electorally rewarding. Whether Ciotti’s path remains an isolated case or becomes a template for other ambitious centre-right politicians will be one of the key dynamics to watch as the 2027 presidential campaign takes shape.

These local elections confirm that the RN’s road to the Élysée runs through a France that is not yet willing to hand over the keys. However, the cracks in the adherence of some significant political figures to the front républicain, cracks which became visible in Nice, even if not yet spreading to voters at large, suggest that “not yet” may not necessarily mean “never”.

Timothy Peace has received funding from the British Academy, the Economic and Social Research Council and the Royal Society of Edinburgh.

Fred Paxton receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust as an Early Career Fellow (2024-27).