Should you book your summer flights now or wait? Experts say soaring oil prices are changing the rules

Clint Henderson, managing editor at the travel site The Points Guy, told Business Insider he usually recommends booking domestic flights 1 to 2 months in advance and international flights 3 to 5 months in advance for the best deals.

"Right now at TPG, we are throwing the usual playbook out the window because airplane fuel prices are rising so rapidly, along with ticket prices," Henderson said. "Instead, we are advising people to go ahead and book all their airplane tickets for the year."

Henderson predicts that last-minute deals will be less common in the lead-up to summer due to rising oil prices, and that flights routing through the Middle East will see the biggest fare increases.

Henderson said he has already had to change his travel plans. "I was supposed to fly on Etihad to Johannesburg via Abu Dhabi myself, and my flight was canceled," he said. "I had to reroute through London on British Airways at great expense."

Rob Handfield, a Bank of America distinguished professor of supply chain management at North Carolina State University, told Business Insider that last-minute summer travel deals are "unlikely to happen."

Airfares are unlikely to fall unless oil prices come down, he said: "There is no way of knowing when that will happen."

Handfield, who said he is reconsidering a European vacation of his own because of rising ticket costs, suggests that travelers consider booking flexible fares that allow them to cancel and rebook if prices do eventually fall.

"The best advice I can give at this time is to monitor the situation, and do not start planning for July-August travel yet," Volodymr Bilotkach, associate professor of aviation management at Purdue University, told Business Insider. "I am taking my own advice of not planning summer travel just yet."

Bilotkach said that while booking early — before airlines adjust fares or introduce fuel surcharges — is one way to potentially save money, a prolonged period of high prices could reduce demand for air travel, leading to more affordable fares later.

When it comes to last-minute bookings, Bilotkach said pricing is generally driven more by supply and demand than fuel costs.

"If a flight happens to be much emptier than expected days before departure, the airlines tend to open up cheaper fares for the last-minute travelers, still offering modest profit potential," he said. "I doubt that the fuel price hike will change this practice."

Robert W. Mann, an independent airline industry consultant, said travelers planning a summer vacation may want to book sooner rather than later. "Booking now, customers may avoid further increases," he said.

"The duration of the rise in jet fuel costs, as well as the upward creep in fares and surcharges, could continue through the spring booking season," Mann added.

Mann said there may be some last-minute discounts. "Economic conditions and demand destruction may cause airlines to test fare reductions toward the actual summer travel season," he said.

Katy Nastro, company spokesperson and travel industry analyst for Going, an app for flight deal alerts, told Business Insider that given the unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices, the "only predictable thing travelers can do is lock in summer fares before they get even higher."

Nastro said we are still in a "Goldilocks window," or the optimal time to find summer deals. "Most people expect airfares to work like retail, where the bargain bins come out the week of, and flights magically go on sale," she said. In reality, the opposite is true: airfare trends upwards the closer you get to your departure date."

That being said, Nastro said Going expects "quite the opposite" this year, owing to changes in travel demand on certain routes. "People might get lucky here and there if a route is particularly soft," she added.

Nastro is advising travelers to "take advantage of what deals are available now," such as certain flights from Houston to Tokyo, and from Nashville to Toronto.

John Grant, Senior Analyst at OAG, was clear on when he thinks people should book their summer vacations: "NOW!"

"Prices are likely to escalate every day, and with tourists now in some cases changing travel patterns toward Spain, Portugal, and Western European destinations, demand is increasing quickly," Grant said.

When it comes to last-minute deals, he said there "may well be last-minute deals to destinations such as Cyprus, Turkey, and Greece if the perception is that they are no longer impacted by the current conflict."