What Wall Street pros are saying after Trump postponed strikes on Iranian power plants

• US stocks rose and oil prices fell after Trump signaled potential de-escalation of the Iran war.
• Trump posted that he'd had "productive" talks with Iran on Monday morning.
• Markets cheered the development, but some commentators remained skeptical of an easy exit from the war.

US stocks surged and oil prices tumbled on Monday after Donald Trump said he'd had "productive conversations" with Iran about ending the war.

Trump said he would postpone strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants for five days.

Market commentary from The Kobeissi Letter quantified the move in the first hour as a more than $3 trillion swing in the S&P 500's market cap.

While markets took Trump's Truth Social post as a sign of potential de-escalation, Iranian state media, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting, posted that "No conversation has taken place between Iran and the US, and Trump's claim about having these talks is #false."

The outlet added that "Trump's false claim an attempt to #escape his recent threat on Iran's power infrastructure. Iran's stance on the Strait of Hormuz has not changed."

The speaker of Iran's parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, later said no talks had taken place and accused Trump of trying to manipulate oil markets with his post.

Still, markets were rallying on the prospect that an off-ramp in the conflict may be emerging for the first time since the war began.

Here's what some of the top voices on Wall Street had to say.

The lingering question for El-Erian

Mohamed El-Erian, the famed economist and former PIMCO chief investment officer, said that the question is not only the outcome of the talks between Washington and Tehran, but what happens in the interim and whether Israel will buy into any agreement to end the war.

He told CNBC that the next five days will be critical.

"It's an important turnaround because we were seeing a flight to cash as the only safe haven, and that was contracting markets in a significant manner," El-Erian said.

"What happens in the next five days if whatever central command is left in Iran cannot control field commanders? What happens if Israel doesn't follow the US? A lot can happen in the next five days."

Ex-JPM quant says there's no TACO trade in war

"This is net negative for markets. Manipulation will cause liquidity to disappear and real problems will stay," Marko Kolanovic, former quant head at JPMorgan, commented on X. Kolanovic has previously said the TACO trade won't save markets from the effects of the war.

Kolanovic wrote that if Trump is indeed just trying to soothe jittery markets, with no actual buy-in from Iran, it "signals weak hand, low pain threshold so that they need to press on. What it signals to allies? Stay away unreliable policies change on few points of market drop."

Trump may be reusing his tariff playbook

David Morrison, senior economist at Trade Nation, aired similar concerns, noting that it's hard for markets to interpret Trump's latest update.

"It's difficult to know how seriously to take this latest interjection from President Trump," he said on Monday as markets rallied.

Economist Justin Wolfers also weighed in, pointing out that Trump's tactics during the war have mirrored his tariff playbook.

"The Iran war has in one respect followed a similar pattern to the trade war: Every time Trump leaned into his aggressive instincts, markets fell. This morning we see the opposite: When he backs off his aggressive instincts, markets rise," he said.

Oil prices won't return to prewar levels soon

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, flagged that even with a complete de-escalation, it will take months to reestablish the free flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

"It is encouraging that escalation has been paused yet it is important to note that when the conflict ends the tap of oil and refined products will not just be turned back on," he wrote, adding that while prices will come down, investors shouldn't count on crude returning to pre-war levels.

El-Erian also noted this dynamic, pointing to comments fro Qatari officials that said 17% of the country's liquefied natural gas production would be offline for years.