Blue tsunami predictions for November election might not make landfall
To read much political analysis, the results of the November midterm election are already set. The recent Fox News Poll showed Democrats leading Republicans by six points in support for the House. Similarly, last November, both New Jersey and Virginia elected Democrats governors by double digits, suggesting an energized Democratic electorate and a demoralized Republican one.
And, given that the Republicans’ current razor-thin 218-214 margin in the House, a loss of only three Republican-held seats would give the Democrats control. Over in the Senate, the Democrats face more challenging – though not impossible – odds.
As the cliché goes, "a week is a long time in politics." And the election is not for seven months.
All off-year elections represent a referendum on the president – and given President Donald Trump’s ability to dominate and disrupt – that’s especially true this November. Fortunately for the GOP, there remain a host of known-unknowns – issues that will likely affect the outcome of November’s elections more than the state of the race in March.
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The obvious known-unknown is – as always –the economy. But this year – given the current bombing of Iran, the change in leadership in Venezuela and uncertainty about Cuba – Trump’s unorthodox foreign policy actions may be decisive.
People in the know will tell you foreign policy never matters in elections. They’re wrong. A president’s foreign actions – especially military – have an enormous impact on the perception of a president’s strength. President Joe Biden’s chaotic pullout of troops from Afghanistan transformed his job approval overnight. It never recovered. In the face of Disruptive Don, Biden had campaigned as Serious Joe. But the results in Afghanistan, where 13 U.S. soldiers died, made many Americans agree with Trump: he was Sleepy.
In contrast to Biden, Trump seeks to show that his creative disruption is yielding dividends for the U.S. The likely political impact will be measured more by the actual outcome – in the near future rather than today’s polling that suggests voter skepticism.
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Trump’s disruption seems to have worked in Venezuela, where the U.S. military removed a dictator and where the government seems – for the first time in over a quarter-century – to be acting in a friendly manner with the U.S.
At the end of February, consistent with his persona, Trump again rolled the dice – killing the top leadership of Iran – a country that for almost half a century has embarrassed and threatened the U.S. – arguably destroying Jimmy Carter’s presidency and delivering black eyes to the two most popular presidents of the last 50 years – Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama.
In Iran, Trump faces an adversary that over 60% of American voters think poses a real threat to the U.S. That’s according to the recent Fox News poll (taken after the bombing began on Saturday, February 28). Voters disagree over whether Trump’s actions are correct: More than 80% of Republicans think they’re correct, and a similar eight in 10 Democrats oppose them. But what’s going to matter is whether he gets a clear "win" – as in Venezuela – or not.
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The recent results are clearly mixed: oil prices have skyrocketed and Iran seems to have successfully closed the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, the bombing continues causing significant damage both to Iran’s infrastructure and to the leadership of the country.
Military analysts disagree on whether that aerial damage will cause them to "cry uncle" and curtail Iran’s ability to continue to cause asymmetric damage to the oil-producing Arab states and the global economy. Political analysts – however – should admit that it’s a clear known-unknown. The reality of Iran – as Americans see it in the fall – will have a major impact on voters’ partisan conclusions in November.
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And 90 miles off the coast of the U.S., Cuba remains as it has for almost 70 years – as an island of opposition and bane of the policies of every U.S. president since Dwight Eisenhower. The loss of the Venezuelan oil that kept their economy afloat, is putting significant pressure on the government.
Marco Rubio – the son of Cuban refugees, is secretary of State. And the Cuban government has seen Trump’s ability to roll the dice, as he did with Venezuela and Iran. Already there are signs that the Cubans are "whispering uncle." Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, told NBC News that "Cuba is open to having a fluid commercial relationship with U.S. companies, also with Cubans residing in the United States and their descendants."
I’m not making a military prediction of how any of those three disruptions will be seen in eight months. But their outcome will likely decisively define Trump’s disruptive presidency.
And if you want an idea of who’s going to win in the midterms – it’s those known-unknowns that will decide it, not Trump’s current dismal poll results.