Healthy oceans ‘vital for economic stability’, says ECB

Economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) have warned that healthy oceans are vital for economic stability, highlighting growing risks from marine degradation.

In a blog authored by Andrej Ceglar, executive board advice expert and counsel to the Executive Board, Irene Heemskerk, senior adviser and counsel to the Executive Board, and John Hutchinson, principal economist in monetary policy strategy, the authors outlined the economic importance of oceans and their role in climate stability.

“Healthy oceans are vital for our economies,” they stated.

The blog emphasised that oceans cover over 70 per cent of the Earth’s surface, yet their contribution to economic activity and life on the planet remains underappreciated.

It explained that the ocean economy accounts for up to 5 per cent of global services and products, encompassing sectors such as fisheries, tourism and coastal industries.

Over the past 25 years, the ocean economy has doubled in size to approximately €2.3 trillion, with most growth recorded in Asia and the Pacific.

Shipping alone carries around 80 per cent of international trade by volume, underlining the sector’s central role in global commerce.

Within the European Union, ocean-related businesses generate about €251 billion in gross value added, representing around 1.7 per cent of total EU GVA and 2.4 per cent of employment.

The authors highlighted that sectors such as offshore renewable energy and marine biotechnology are expanding rapidly, contributing to innovation and economic growth.

However, they warned that these benefits are increasingly under threat due to overfishing, pollution, global warming and habitat degradation.

“But these economic benefits are at risk,” the authors said.

They pointed out that around 10 per cent of marine species are at risk of extinction, while approximately 40 per cent of assessed fish populations in the EU are not in good or sustainable condition.

Beyond direct economic impacts, the blog stressed the critical role of oceans in mitigating climate change.

“Oceans are among the planet’s most powerful defences against climate change,” the authors said.

Since the Industrial Revolution, oceans have absorbed roughly one-third of human carbon dioxide emissions and more than 90 per cent of excess heat generated by greenhouse gases.

This function helps regulate regional climates and reduce extreme temperature fluctuations, although the blog cautioned that these natural mechanisms have limits.

The report noted that ocean temperatures have reached record highs, with 2024 marking the hottest year on record for global oceans.

Rising temperatures are already linked to more intense hurricanes, typhoons and heavy rainfall events, as well as increasingly frequent marine heatwaves.

These developments are contributing to the widespread degradation of ecosystems such as coral reefs and kelp forests.

Since 2023, around 80 per cent of the world’s coral reefs have been exposed to bleaching-level heat stress, representing the largest global bleaching event on record.

The deterioration of coral reefs reduces their ability to protect coastlines, increasing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure.

At the same time, ocean acidification has exceeded safe limits, posing further risks to marine ecosystems.

As oceans absorb more carbon dioxide, they become more acidic, threatening species such as cold-water corals, tropical reefs and Arctic marine life.

The blog warned that if current trends continue, oceans could eventually shift from a carbon sink to a carbon source, amplifying climate change.

Sea levels have also risen significantly, increasing by around 21 centimetres since 1900, with the pace of rise accelerating.

The annual rate of sea level increase has more than doubled, from about 1.7 millimetres per year last century to over 3.7 millimetres per year today.

Scientists caution that extreme scenarios of more than two metres of sea level rise by 2100 cannot be ruled out, particularly if ice sheet disintegration accelerates.

The economic implications are substantial, with 65 per cent of the global economy located within 100 kilometres of coastlines and 12 of the world’s 15 megacities situated in coastal areas.

Without adaptation, rising seas could cost the EU up to €500 billion annually in lost coastal services by 2080.

The authors stressed that these developments are directly relevant to central banks and monetary policy.

“Oceans are relevant to price stability,” they said.

They explained that disruptions to marine ecosystems can affect fisheries, tourism and maritime transport, reducing output and employment while increasing price volatility.

The weakening of coastal protection also raises risks for infrastructure, fiscal stability and financial systems.

“These effects will likely increase economic losses, raising macroeconomic uncertainty,” the authors said.

They added that ocean degradation complicates economic forecasting and the conduct of monetary policy, particularly as climate-related shocks become more unpredictable.

Evidence suggests that ignoring global temperature dynamics, including ocean temperatures, can lead to underestimating climate-related economic damage by five to six times.

The authors emphasised the need for more granular data on economic and financial exposure to ocean-related risks, particularly in coastal and ocean-dependent sectors.

They also referred to a global “planetary health check” in October 2025, which found that more than three-quarters of Earth’s life-support systems are now in the danger zone.

“Central banks are not climate policymakers and we cannot prevent ocean degradation,” they said.

“However, we can, and must, observe and research the economic and financial consequences,” they added.

They stressed that central banks must integrate these risks into macroeconomic models, scenario analysis and stress-testing frameworks.

At the same time, the blog highlighted the need for global collective action, including cutting emissions and scaling up investment in adaptation and conservation.

“Protecting our oceans is not just an environmental goal – it is an economic necessity,” the authors said.

The blog also pointed to positive developments, including commitments announced at the UN Oceans conference in June 2025.

These include €1 billion from the European Commission for ocean science and conservation, €8.7 billion from investors and philanthropists for sustainable ocean initiatives, and €3 billion from the European Investment Bank and the Asian Development Bank to combat marine plastic pollution.

In addition, the UN High Seas Treaty entered into force on January 17, 2026, after reaching the required 60-country ratification threshold.

The treaty aims to enable the creation of marine protected areas covering 30 per cent of international waters, compared with just 1 per cent currently protected.

The authors described this as a historic step towards safeguarding marine biodiversity in previously unregulated areas.

They concluded that protecting ocean ecosystems is essential for long-term economic resilience, particularly in the face of escalating climate risks.