Straits of Uncertainty
At this point in our war against Iran, it’s impossible to tell when and how it’s going to end.
Iran has managed to close the Strait of Hormuz more by threats than action. Shipping companies, afraid of drone and missile strikes, have told their captains to stay away from the Strait. That freezes about 20 percent of the oil and natural gas the world needs.
Iran apparently believes it is winning the war. All the ayatollahs’ regime needs to do to win is to survive.
On Friday, President Trump said the NATO nations were acting like cowards. Twenty-two nations — ranging from the UK and France to Lithuania and the United Arab Emirates — have signed a statement that said, “We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait,” and, “We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.” Which is nothing more than a big harrumph.
Iran has also proved its ability to strike at — not hit — our strategic base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, which is about 2,600 miles from Tehran. (The missiles apparently fell short.)
Mr. Trump’s choices are few and very ugly.
You remember Diego Garcia: it’s the strategically critical base that our “ally” — UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer — is surrendering to the Chinese. Sorry, I meant the island nation of Mauritius, which is the close political ally of China. Starmer’s government says the deal is on hold. Let’s hope it dies.
The Iranians haven’t run out of missiles and drones despite our hitting their factories building such weapons. But we may be running out of missiles and bombs. There are three things that bring that thought to mind.
First, we have conducted more than 7,000 strikes against Iranian military and industrial sites. That requires an awful lot of munitions. President Trump and Defense Secretary Hegseth are asking Congress to appropriate another $200 billion for the Iran war. That could be to replenish our stocks. They’re not likely to get it from a Schumer-dominated Senate without a lot of strings — limits on the president’s war powers, etc. — attached.
Second is the Army’s farthest ever artillery strike. As CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said, the Army “launched the longest field artillery strike in Army combat history using precision strike missiles.” The Army, which is probably jealous of the Navy and Air Force stealing all the Epic Fury thunder, may have just wanted a piece of the action. Or it could be an indication of our near-empty stockpiles.
And, third, President Trump is now saying that we would wrap up the war in the “near future,” while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is saying that the war would end “a lot faster than people think.”
So are we running out of bombs and missiles to drop and shoot at the Iranians? It’s entirely possible.
On the other hand, Mr. Trump is threatening the Pars gas field in Iran if Iran keeps targeting Qatari gas facilities. That would indicate that Mr. Trump is confident in our supply chain.
The biggest indication of our intent in Iran came on Friday when Mr. Trump said he was considering winding down the war. But he is sending another Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) to the waters off Iran. An MEU is comprised of about 2,200 Marines and sailors.
Mr. Trump also said that the European countries would have to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Mr. Trump isn’t in any rush to open the Strait and wants the NATO nations to take responsibility for reopening it. Europe will suffer for every day the Strait isn’t reopened. It’s not yet possible to believe that they will intervene with military force to reopen it.
Does Mr. Trump want to land the Marines on Kharg Island? Or is he planning raids into Iran or even a deployment of Marines on the Iranian mainland?
One big question remains: where is the highly-enriched uranium (HEU) that Iran has stockpiled? It is reportedly enriched to 60 percent, and would require further enrichment to 90 percent to make it weapons-grade. It takes a lot more work and centrifuge time to convert uranium to 60 percent enrichment than it does to take it to 90 percent.
Iran reportedly has nearly 1,000 pounds of it, perhaps enough to make ten atomic bombs if it were enriched to weapons-grade.
The HEU may be in one place — Natanz or Fordow — both of which were nearly destroyed in our June 2025 B-2 raid. But what if the Iranians have stashed it in other places, perhaps several? Digging out Natanz and Fordow will take a long time. The Iranians think they have that time.
If we had intelligence showing where it was hidden, we could send our special operations forces into Natanz or Fordow or other locations.
But any raids would require a lot of special equipment for digging out and handling the enriched uranium. And they would require air supremacy in that or those areas, making the spec ops guys safe against Iranian drones or fighters. The raid(s) would have to be carried out simultaneously. It’s not like the raid that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro and his wife. It’s a huge job and it won’t be easy.
Mr. Trump campaigned against our “endless wars” when he first ran for president. He may want an off-ramp in the Iran war but, again, Iran believes that it is winning. Iran is increasing its attacks on Israel and neighboring Arab states.
Unless Mr. Trump forces regime change, the ayatollahs’ regime will revive itself and decide that its only protection against the United States is to have nuclear weapons. China did, North Korea did, and Saddam Hussein’s Iraq tried. Iran can be counted on to do the same.
Mr. Trump’s choices are few and very ugly. The ayatollahs’ regime can probably hold on for weeks or months, perhaps longer. Having taken on the job, we can’t falter now.
READ MORE from Jed Babbin:
The Missing Definition of Victory in Iran