Why Blackhawks' worse season than Ducks, Sharks largely stems from overtime luck

At first glance at the NHL standings, the Ducks and Sharks appear to be much better teams than the Blackhawks this season.

That would be concerning for the Hawks, considering how all three teams have undergone similar rebuilds in recent years.

A deeper look, however, reveals the gap between the three teams largely stems from their different records in overtimes and shootouts.

The Hawks have 19 regulation wins this season, the Sharks have 20 and the Ducks have 23. They're all in the bottom half of the league in that category, but there's not much separating them.

On the other hand, the Ducks are 15-4 in overtime/shootout games and the Sharks are 12-6, whereas the Hawks are 7-13. The Hawks' 13 overtime/shootout losses are already their most since 2013-14, and they still have 12 games left.

That's why the Ducks are currently leading the Pacific Division (and are nearly a lock to make the playoffs), the Sharks are bouncing around the playoff bubble (playing high-stakes games every night) and the Hawks are sitting in the basement again.

The Hawks suffered another overtime loss Sunday, falling 3-2 against the Predators despite never trailing in the game. It marked the sixth time in the last 10 games the Hawks have gone to overtime, and they've lost four of those overtimes (winning only the two against the Mammoth).

Steven Stamkos equalized for the Predators halfway through the third period, and Filip Forsberg buried the winner 65 seconds into overtime after knocking Hawks forward Andre Burakovsky off the puck behind the net.

"[When] you get three guys on the ice, you get a little bit of systematic stuff, but...this comes down to guys making plays," coach Jeff Blashill said. "I thought 'Burky' played great tonight, so [it's] a little bit unfortunate." And [Artyom Levshunov] didn’t quite react to the breakdown, and it goes in the net.

"If our overtimes had been better, our record would be much better. I certainly recognize that. But we have a lot of other things we’re working on, as well."

Blashill added that he didn't want to label overtime records as a product of luck — because he often insists he doesn't believe in the concept of luck — but he basically labeled them that anyway.

And he's right. There's little correlation between the teams that are good in overtime one season and the teams that are good the following season.

The Jets, for example, led the NHL with a 13-4 overtime/shootout record last season en route to claiming the Presidents' Trophy. This season, they have the third-worst overtime/shootout record at 6-12, which helps explain why they'll likely miss the playoffs.

The Ducks should be concerned about similar regression next season. They've only outshot opponents by a slim 40-36 margin in three-on-three play this season, after all. For comparison, the Sharks have been outshot 22-19 and the Hawks have been outshot 40-33.

"I’m a fan of three-on-three," Blashill said. "But it sucks for us that we haven’t been better at it."

It's worth noting the Hawks' lack of elite forwards beyond Connor Bedard probably does hurt them, since three-on-three hockey obviously values stardom over depth. As defenseman Alex Vlasic put it Sunday, "Everybody's got a great three-man roster."

Their team weakness on faceoffs probably hurts them, too, since puck possession in so important — and changes hands so infrequently — in three-on-three. The Hawks' 46.6% faceoff percentage is second-worst in the league. (The Ducks and Sharks are also in the bottom seven in faceoff percentage.)

If the Hawks can bolster their forward corps chart next season, it should help them in overtime and shootouts — as well as in every other area. But they'll also have to simply count on fortune swinging in their favor, too.