Even if AI doesn't take your job, it might dent your paycheck

• Companies are spending big on AI, but research shows most haven't seen measurable ROI.
• To offset those costs, employers can do layoffs — or trim line items like bonuses and stock awards.
• Workers can still make a case for a pay bump by emphasizing their value and AI chops.

AI may be putting more than just jobs on the line.

Companies are investing heavily in the technology and top-tier AI talent, and layoffs aren't the only option for offsetting those costs. At least one survey of US business leaders suggests that some are planning to cut workers' compensation.

"They have to pay for AI somehow," said Rocki-Lee DeWitt, a management professor at the University of Vermont's Grossman School of Business. "It ain't cheap."

Research firm IDC says companies with more than 1,000 employees are expected to spend an average of $13.7 million on AI hardware, cloud infrastructure, software, and services this year, a 78% increase from 2025, based on a global analysis.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said on a recent episode of the "All-In Podcast" that he would be "deeply alarmed" if one of the chip giant's top engineers spent too little on AI tokens. In another episode of the same program, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya expressed concern about ballooning AI bills at his startup.

Yet despite all that outlay, 95% of organizations reported no measurable ROI from AI in the first half of 2025, according to an MIT study based on reviews of publicly disclosed AI initiatives and executive interviews.

Until companies see tangible gains from their AI investments, they may need to rein in other expenses, especially as tariffs, high inflation, and other factors also strain budgets.

Cost-cutting options

Several companies have announced layoffs tied to AI in recent months — including Block and Atlassian — and others may be tempted to follow suit, Business Insider previously reported. In November, HP said in an earnings report that it planned to cut between 4,000 and 6,000 jobs by the end of 2028, saving the company roughly $1 billion.

Cuts to employee compensation may be next.

More than half of 866 executives and senior managers polled earlier this month by ResumeBuilder.com, 58%, said they plan to reduce employee compensation by the end of this year to help fund their AI investments. Bonuses and stock awards will be affected the most, followed by raises, benefits, and base salaries, the findings show.

Though such cuts could hurt morale, "employees don't have any leverage" due to the tight job market, said Jessica Kriegel, chief strategy officer at workplace consulting firm Culture Partners in Sacramento, California. "They will push back less, and they will accept smaller raises to avoid risk that feels real."

ResumeBuilder didn't cite the size of the companies where the respondents work, though small businesses are the most likely to take a hammer to employee pay or perks in lieu of making job cuts, said Kriegel.

"You can't just lay off 10% of your organization when you have, say 20 people, and everyone has got their hands in a million different pots," she said.

Another option for companies grappling with AI and other costs can be to hold compensation steady. The Conference Board, a nonprofit provider of data and insights for business leaders, expects average salary increases to stay at 3.4% this year, the same as in 2025.

Getting a raise anyway

Workers can still make a case for a pay bump amid the AI boom, said Kris Erickson, cofounder of consulting firm Workforce Science Associates in Lincoln, Nebraska.

"When budgets are tight, and the economy is uncertain, you have to get into sales mode" to successfully secure a raise, she said. "You have to make yourself invaluable."

Given how much money companies are spending on AI in search of productivity gains, highlight any you've realized from using it. Merely saying you know how to use AI is not enough, said David Gaspin, an HR professional and executive coach in New York.

"Asking for a raise because you're proficient in AI is not the strategy," he said. "That proficiency is table stakes at this point."

It's also important to show why AI can't fill your shoes.

"The key differentiator today is becoming: What can you do that can't be replaced with technology? Where is your experience, your judgment, your unique point of view adding tangible, quantifiable value to the business?" said Gaspin. "Because that's where companies are going to see risk in you leaving."