How the Raptors are gamifying transition frequency in their favour

The new Matt Johnson and Jay McCarrol flick – Nirvanna the Band the Show the Movie – understandably took Toronto by storm. It’s a perfect piece of Canadiana (Torontoiana?) flush with referential humour and colourful absurdity that captures the essence of the city perfectly. Not to mention, it’s hilarious. Just two middle-aged goofballs attempting to pull off ludicrous plans in pursuit of the ultimate prize: booking their band a show at the Rivoli on Queen west. 

Johnson hatches all sorts of hair-brained schemes to shortcut the duo’s path to extremely modest fame – The seventh-inning skydive plan, the time-machine plan. 

The Toronto Raptors have common ground with Johnson. They too are attempting to short track their way to a meager result. Raptors fans are no strangers to this type of approach. During the 2021-22 season, Nick Nurse infamously worked to game the possession battle in a way that was never seen before and has rarely been replicated since, despite the strategy pervading the league. 

Now, the Raptors are once again putting their thumbs on the scale, except this time it’s in the form of controlling transition frequency. Darko Rajakovic’s tactic isn’t as pronounced as Nurse’s chicanery, but it’s present nonetheless. The Raptors are tied for first in how often they run in transition. They also allow other teams to run second-least. (Both per Cleaning the Glass.)

Toronto’s second-ranked transition frequency, but bottom-10 ranked transition efficiency, has been a source of great consternation for viewers of the club this season. From Immanuel Quickley driving into crowds on the break early in the season to bench players spectacularly failing to convert on the easiest of opportunities, there’s been no shortage of frustrating material. Yet the strategy works regardless because efficiency on transition chances is always going to be far higher than in the halfcourt. Even Toronto’s relatively inept 123.7 points per 100 transition plays far exceeds its 98.3 points per 100 half-court plays. The more they can get, the better. 

In turn, the more often Toronto can limit teams running out and instead force them to face their set defence, the better position they put themselves in. 

The Raptors have garnered a reputation as a strong defensive team this season, and rightly so. They’re currently ranked seventh in defensive rating and have hovered in the range of Nos. 3-8 for most of the campaign. Yet, their first-shot halfcourt defence is ranked only 12th. Decidedly average. And this is despite Scottie Barnes’ herculean, potentially DPOY-worthy (if Wemby misses two more games) efforts on that end. Still, league average points per 100 in the halfcourt is 97.8, compared to 125.0 in transition. Of course Toronto wants its opponents to play slower.

So how does a team with a markedly average offence – theoretically allowing opponents more opportunity to run off misses – manage this? 

They do limit turnovers, ranking top ten in both total giveaways and turnover percentage, but still rank only sixth in opponents’ transition frequency off steals. While on live rebounds, only the Oklahoma City Thunder are better at limiting runouts. To my eye, they’ve accomplished this through intention. 

In recent seasons, a tactic called tagging up – in reference to getting on your man’s back on offensive rebounds, not tagging the roller – has gained popularity. The Houston Rockets have taken it to a new level this season as they also aim to tip the scales in their favour. The Raptors first started to implement this technique last season, but it’s taken a new shape over time. Initially, the Raptors were both grabbing offensive boards and being deliberate about tagging their checks, but it appears to have shifted to a more passive approach where preventing transition opportunities is prioritized over grabbing extra possessions. This could be viewed as “soft tagging up” or an approach where players are extra intentional about finding their man after a shot goes up and ensuring they don’t get out and running. Guys that are near the hoop passively tag, those not in range retreat, and transition is quelled, as coach Jama Mahlalela explains here.

The Raptors are also a good transition defence for a variety of other reasons. They rank third in opponents’ transition efficiency. Barnes floating above the break and using his immaculate range and ground coverage to nullify chances undoubtedly plays a role here. But preventing other teams from even getting these high-value chances in the first place is what’s really driving the nail home. A handful of the Raptors’ most successful defensive games this season have come against top fastbreak teams, including holding the Miami Heat, Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks all under 100 points. 

Offensively, they emphasize transition too. The players have spoken about their “first touch” philosophy – the mindset of immediately looking for a hit-ahead pass to the leak out man in transition after a change of possession. Toronto looks to run at every opportunity, even off makes sometimes. 

There are differences between the Raptors and Nirvanna the Band too. Matt and Jay’s plans never quite work out. They never play the Rivoli. So far, while they’ve largely struggled against stronger competition, the Raptors have also objectively taken strides forward this season. They recently broke through what was a seemingly impenetrable barrier against the East’s top team. Gamifying transition play is a part of that. By continuing such intentionality, The Raptors could reach their modest goal of competing in or even – dare I say – winning a playoff series. Their Rivoli. 

But to ascend to the next tier of teams, the Raptors will need to not only tilt the floor in their favour, but take full advantage of those opportunities. Ranking 29th in efficiency off steals isn’t going to cut it. Neither will ranking 25th in both 3-point volume and percentage. They need more shooting, more driving, and they don’t have a time machine to go back to 2008, or any other year for that matter, and get it. 

Eventually the Raptors will need to stop covering their limitations and confront them. Which was the same doom that confronted Nurse’s Raptors at the end, too. And until Rajakovic’s Raptors overcome their limitations, they may be stuck striving for mediocrity.

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