The Party of AOC or AIPAC? In Illinois, Neither Bloc Could Dominate

The primaries in deep-blue Illinois on Tuesday were a test of who has power and influence in the Democratic Party. In three primaries for open U.S. House seats in the Chicago area and the seat of the retiring Senator Richard Durbin, it was the party’s progressive wing versus more moderate forces. In all four races, there was a candidate supported by Senator Bernie Sanders, Senator Elizabeth Warren, or both. And in all four races, there was at least one different candidate who had support from super PACs affiliated with the cryptocurrency industry, the artificial intelligence industry, and/or the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

The stakes in these races and similar Democratic primaries across the country are high. AIPAC is fighting to remain relevant in a Democratic Party where it used to be a dominant force. Meanwhile, progressives are fighting to get the party out from under the spell of big corporate donors.

It was a draw last night in Illinois. Each side won two races. The primaries were the latest illustration of a changing party where no faction or group is dominant. Progressive policy views, such as skepticism of the Israeli government and support for the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, are gaining ground in the Democratic Party. But progressive politicians aren’t advancing as quickly. The cryptocurrency industry, AIPAC, and other groups don’t want a more progressive Democratic Party—and are spending heavily to keep left-wingers out of Congress. And they are succeeding in some cases.

The progressive side won the biggest race: the Senate seat. Illinois Lieutenant Governor Juliana Stratton, backed by Warren, defeated Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, who was boosted by a super PAC affiliated with the cryptocurrency industry that spent heavily on his behalf.

In Illinois’ 9th congressional district, Daniel Biss, backed by Warren and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, defeated Laura Fine, who had support from groups linked to AIPAC. But in the 2nd district, Donna Miller, boosted by AIPAC-linked groups, won over a field that included Robert Peters, who had been endorsed by Warren, Sanders, and the Progressive Caucus but finished a distant third. And in the 8th district, Melissa Bean, backed by both cryptocurrency and pro-Israel super-PACs, defeated Junaid Ahmed, who had been endorsed by Warren, Sanders, and Justice Democrats.

These primaries obviously didn’t just come down to endorsements. Many of these races included numerous candidates. The candidates’ backgrounds, personalities, and previous experience in office no doubt affected the results. And other groups and politicians were involved beyond those I listed above, most notably Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, who spent heavily to help Stratton.

That said, primaries in deep-blue areas like Chicago are becoming crucial battlegrounds in the party. Progressive Democrats struggle in red and purple states, where primary voters often choose a more moderate Democrat they think will likely do better in a general election. So the clearest path to a more progressive Democratic Party is leftist candidates winning in deep-blue areas. New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and other progressive heroes might not have won primaries in Michigan or Wisconsin. But they won in blue areas and then gained power and influence statewide and even nationally.

So that’s why Warren, Sanders, and the Progressive Caucus were so involved in these races. The Massachusetts senator even flew to Illinois the weekend before the election to campaign for Stratton and Peters.

On the other side, AIPAC wants to limit the growing ranks of Democratic politicians who are deeply critical of the Israeli government. The crypto and AI companies oppose politicians who are skeptical of big business and want to regulate their industries more closely. That’s why super PACs aligned with crypto, AI, and AIPAC spent more than $20 million in the Chicago-area House races to boost their preferred candidates.

This fight is not new. Ocasio-Cortez and many prominent progressives first got their seats in 2018 and 2020 in primaries where progressive groups were heavily involved. AIPAC-linked groups then worked to defeat progressives Representatives Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush in 2024. Progressives invested heavily and won in a special election for a U.S. House seat in New Jersey earlier this year (Governor Mikie Sherrill’s old seat).

But spending by a crypto super PAC was a key factor in the near defeat of very liberal Texas Representative Al Green earlier this month. The longtime congressman finished behind Representative Christian Menefee in a primary where redistricting pitted two incumbents against each other. But Menefee did not hit 50 percent, so there will be a runoff there.

As a person on the more progressive end myself, I found Tuesday’s results troubling. AIPAC and the cryptocurrency industry are now pumping money into House races across the country. A few million dollars may not mean much in a presidential or U.S. Senate race but can really affect a House race, where the electorate is quite small. Bean, a former House member, and Miller didn’t win only because these organized interests spent money on their behalf. But they surely helped.

And AIPAC-linked groups, fully aware that very pro-Israel stances aren’t shared by many Democratic voters, usually run ads on other issues to boost their candidates and weaken progressives. Sometimes those ads imply that the more moderate candidates are more progressive than they really are. That’s a smart, if cynical, strategy. And their effectiveness in Illinois will only embolden these groups to spend even more in Democratic primaries.

Also, since progressives are trying to reduce the role of big money and billionaires in politics, it’s not ideal that one of the progressive victories likely happened only because of the spending of one man: Pritzker.

On the other hand, AIPAC and the AI and crypto industries can’t be totally satisfied with Tuesday’s results. In the 9th district, AIPAC-linked groups spent heavily to help Fine and defeat both Biss and Kat Abughazaleh, another progressive candidate. But Fine finished third. And because Biss is Jewish, he could be a very important voice in the party in calling for the United States to be less supportive of the Israeli government. Stratton, the Senate primary winner, linked herself closely to Warren and is likely to be another voice of the Hill castigating big business and billionaires.

Democratic primaries the rest of the year in other states are likely to be face-offs between progressive leaders and groups versus some combination of AI, crypto, and AIPAC. This doesn’t mean that the Democratic Party is hopelessly divided. In many ways, the party is more unified than ever because of the radicalism of Donald Trump. But this a huge fight with major consequences. A Democratic Party that used to be very pro-Israel and pretty pro-business is being pushed hard by its progressive wing to drastically change course. And those opposed to that new direction are opening their wallets wide to stop it. The Democratic Party will never be AIPAC’s again. But it may never quite be AOC’s party, either.