Canadians open to negotiating with Western separatists as data show underrepresentation in Parliament: report
A firm majority of Canadians said they are open to reforming the House of Commons and Senate to meet separatist demands, according to a new report that also highlights the West’s ongoing underrepresentation in the federal parliamentary system.
The results come as long-standing discontent about the province’s representation in Ottawa’s chambers of power comes to the surface.
Last month, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith proposed a referendum question asking whether Canada should amend the constitution to “abolish the unelected federal Senate,” adding to a host of other calls to eliminate the parliamentary body. The question, which will appear on a referendum in October alongside at least eight others, echoes one of the most common complaints raised by separatists, who regularly point out that Alberta is underrepresented in Canada’s parliamentary system in comparison with the size of its population.
In a new report by the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy, the Calgary-based think tank compiled recent data on representation in the House of Commons and Senate, and commissioned a Leger poll that found 55 per cent of non-Western respondents would be open to negotiating with Alberta or other Western provinces amid the threat of separation. That was higher than the 49 per cent of non-Quebec respondents who said they would be willing to negotiate with Quebec.
Those strictly opposed to negotiating with separatists, meanwhile, were more likely to oppose Quebec separatists, at 33 per cent opposed, compared with 26 per cent opposed to Western separatists.
Asked whether they “favoured reform of the House of Commons and Senate in the case of threats from Western separatism and Quebec separatism,” 67 per cent of respondents said “yes” or “maybe” to the House of Commons, and 68 per cent for the Senate.
The data show that on a per capita basis, Alberta is underrepresented in the House of Commons and Senate, along with B.C. and Ontario.
As of 2025, Alberta had an average population of 132,645 people per seat in the House of Commons, higher than the national average of 121,075 people. British Columbia is the least represented on a per-capita basis, with 134,057 per seat, and Ontario was the second highest at 133,077.
By comparison, Quebec had 116,816 people per seat, and Saskatchewan had 85,896.
Alberta’s per capita representation in the Senate is far lower than the House of Commons, with 826,623 people per seat in the Senate, or more than double the national average of 395,511. British Columbia’s underrepresentation was again higher than Alberta’s, with 953,720 per seat, and Ontario’s was third-highest, at 674,277.
Quebec, by comparison, was just below the national average with 379,651 people per Senate seat.
Mark Milke, president of the Aristotle Foundation for Public Policy, said the findings suggest that Canadians are largely open to working with Western provinces or Quebec in order to keep the country united.
“The Leger poll reveals that Canadians believe in fair representation and are open to meaningful reform to preserve Canada,” Milke said in a statement. “The population changes, combined with existing structural inequities in Canada’s political institutions, reveal the ‘why’ for dissatisfaction in some parts of the country, most notably British Columbia and Alberta.”
The need for improved federal representation, he said, is particularly pertinent as provincial demographics have changed — most notably a flood of newcomers entering Alberta.
“As Canada’s population shifted westward and increased proportionately in Ontario as well, our federal institutions have not fully adjusted. If representation is to remain legitimate, it must more closely reflect demographic realities.”
Canada redistributes seats in the House of Commons every 10 years, and that distribution is based on several formulas that aren’t strictly based on population.
Among them are regional considerations that have long given the territories and Atlantic Canada outsized representation compared to their populations. Factors influencing the calculation of that distribution include rules that put a floor on the number of seats a province can have, including when its population declines, and the “Senate rule” which stipulates that provinces cannot have fewer seats in the House of Commons than they have in the Senate.
The poll found that two thirds of Canadians think that each member of Parliament “should represent approximately the same number of people,” while 16 per cent disagreed.
The Leger poll also asked respondents whether they would be open to adjusting transfer payments in light of separatist pressures, to which 43 per cent said they would be open to making changes.
According to the Aristotle Foundation’s review of provincial contributions into the federal transfer system, the breakdown was similar to that of parliamentary representation, with B.C., Alberta and Ontario all being net contributors to the system between 1961 and 2018, while all other provinces were net beneficiaries.
Ontario was the largest contributor over that 57-year period, paying a net $768 billion, while Alberta was the second-highest contributor at $630 billion. B.C. paid $138 billion, according to data from the University of Calgary School of Public Policy.
Quebec was by far the biggest net beneficiary of the federal transfer system, receiving a net total of $497 billion over that period.
On a per-person basis, the three net contributors to the federal fiscal balance were Alberta ($3,720 per person), Ontario ($1,267) and B.C. ($603).
All other provinces, also measured per capita, were again net recipients, with net inflows ranging from Quebec ($1,200 per person) to Prince Edward Island ($6,795).
The online poll surveyed 2,710 people across Canada between Jan. 27 and Feb. 1. Leger said that the results were weighted according to age, region and gender. A margin of error cannot be determined in an online panel survey, but for comparison purposes a probability sample of this size would yield a margin of error of no greater than plus or minus 1.9 per cent, Leger said.
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