NCAA Tournament bracket tips — and why Illinois might be a team that can win the whole thing

Keep these "Three Pointers" in mind heading into the first round of the men’s NCAA Tournament, especially if you’re still scribbling out your bracket:

1. Metrics matter a lot

Almost without fail this century, the national champion has been a top 25 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency per the highly respected KenPom rankings, and recent ones — including Florida last year (2 offense, 6 defense) and UConn before that (1 and 4 in 2024, 3 and 7 in 2023) — were great at both. This year, no surprise, the No. 1 seeds lead the way: Duke (4, 2), Arizona (6, 3), Michigan (8, 1) and Florida (9, 6).

No. 2 seeds Houston (13, 5) and Iowa State (20, 4) also are on the right side of this trend. No. 3 seed Illinois (2, 28) comes close. No. 2 seed Purdue ranks first in offense but 36th in defense. Another No. 3, Michigan State, is really good at both ends — 24th in offense, 13th in defense — but not elite at either. Have we already exhausted the list of teams that can win the whole thing? Maybe.

2. Upset trends

Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, No. 9 seeds have a slightly better record than No. 8s, so don’t hesitate to go with the 9s. Impressively, teams seeded No. 10 have won nearly 40% of the time, and — believe it or not — No. 11 seeds have, too. More often than not, at least one No. 13 seed wins a game. And there’s always at least one double-digit seed in the Sweet 16.

3. Underdog watch

No. 10 seeds Texas A&M, Santa Clara and Missouri and No. 11 seeds USF, VCU and Texas are all catching fewer than five points. Take at least a few of them in your bracket. Heck, might as well take ’em all.