This is how many people will die by 2050 if we don’t curb climate change
Playground slides too hot for children to use. Evening walks a thing of the past for the elderly. Workers ditching riding home on their bikes for cars.
This is the future humanity faces by 2050 because of climate change, one which could lead to hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, a new study has shown.
Researchers from the Catholic University of Argentina looked at how rising temperatures impact physical activity by examining World Health Organization (WHO) data from 2000 to 2022.
They predict that for every additional month with average temperatures above 27.8°C, physical inactivity will decrease by 1.4%.
In low and middle-income countries, this will drop by 1.85%. Hot spot countries close to the Equator could show inactivity of 4% by 2050.
This would mean between 470,000 and 700,000 people worldwide could die within the next 24 years, as high temperatures mean they’re less active.
Jim NR Dale, who founded the British Weather Services and writes about extreme weather, says the study’s figures are an understatement.
‘I think the number could actually be quite a lot higher, depending on the speed of climate change and the temperature profile from country to country,’ Dale, who was not involved in the study, tells Metro.
When humans burn fossil fuels, they release greenhouse gases that trap heat, preventing it from slipping out into space.
The world is on track to warm by between 2.7 and 3.1°C by 2100 without greater action.
Dale admits this might not sound like a lot, ‘but neither does a drop of arsenic in your coffee, but it will kill you’.
‘The thing is, heat kills’
The findings, published yesterday in The Lancet Global Health, are part of a growing body of work on the less obvious impacts of a heating planet.
About one-third of adults don’t do moderate physical exercise for 150 minutes a week, which the WHO recommends.
Not being active enough can lead to increased risk of heat disease, diabetes and cancer.
‘The thing is, heat kills,’ Dale says. ‘Heat deaths are going to be more likely and the effects on people’s mobility – to be able to exercise, even do their jobs, if they even have one, and just being able to survive on a daily basis.’
Matthew Todd, a climate change campaigner and author, says global warming pushes our bodies to their ‘limit’.
‘At high heat and humidity, something called wet-bulb temperature can prevent the human body from cooling itself and can quickly become fatal.
‘If you want to have nightmares, do a search on the increase in wet-bulb temperatures.’
The temperature hikes we’ve already seen are enough to melt ice, raise sea levels and mess up ancient weather patterns.
Powerful hurricanes, heat waves that cause wildfires and power outages, lengthy droughts, heavy rain and winter storms will all become more common in the next decade.
‘Scientists also warn 2027 may break 2024’s record to become the hottest year ever recorded by humanity,’ Todd adds.
‘We too have just endured months of rain – we know UK winters are getting wetter – so climate change is not just affecting our physical health, it’s also affecting our mental health.
‘This is not a future problem. It’s happening now, and it’s speeding up.’
The Earth is likely to cross a critical threshold for global warming within the next few years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of experts convened by the UN, warned in 2023.
Nevertheless, global fossil-fuel emissions have continued to rise and set records, even as politicians aim to limit warming between 1.4 and 2°C.
The difference between the two temperatures could mean the difference between coral reefs hanging on and being gone for good, experts warn.
‘Scientists are telling us that climate impacts are more likely to be underestimated than exaggerated,’ Todd adds.
‘The planet is heating faster than expected.’
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