Who will be the Democratic nominee for Dick Durbin's open U.S. Senate seat?
The U.S. Senate race to replace veteran Sen. Dick Durbin reached a fever pitch in the weeks leading up to Election Day, with millions in super PAC money working to influence the Democratic primary, accusations of MAGA money flying around and a series of debates that showed key policy differences and served as a public platform for attacks.
The results, if decided by Tuesday, will be a true test of whether Rep. Raja Kishnamoorthi’s prolific fundraising and millions of dollars worth of ads can beat a late campaign surge by Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, fueled by support from Gov. JB Pritzker and his allies. Rep. Robin Kelly is also likely to see a boost as super PACs intending to help Krishnamoorthi are also running positive ads for her to try to siphon away votes from Stratton.
Should Stratton or Kelly win, Illinois would see its fourth Black senator in the U.S. Senate. If Krishnamoorthi wins the primary, and ultimately the November election, he would make history as the second Indian-American to win a U.S. Senate seat.
Although several polls had shown Krishnamoorthi in the lead for months, Stratton appeared to be closing the gap in the final weeks, with a $5 million contribution from Pritzker, her longtime running mate, helping a super PAC fuel ads both praising her and attacking Krishnamoorthi. Kelly has consistently polled in third place.
As polls showed a closer race, super PACs began to blow up the race to try to help Krishnamoorthi — who has spent more than $25 million in ads that began airing in July. Should Krishnamoorthi lose, the race will serve as a test of just how effective campaign ads are some nine months ahead of the primary.
In total, The Impact Fund — featuring pro-Krishnamoorthi donors, Progressive Values Illinois, pro-crypto PACs Protect Progress and Fairshake, the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association PAC and the pro-Stratton Illinois Future PAC have spent more than $16.85 million in the Senate race, according to a Sun-Times analysis.
Fairshake, funded primarily by Trump megadonors and business partners Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, has spent more than $5.5 million, running anti-Stratton ads. AdImpact, which tracks ads that are reserved by TV stations, has total spending for Fairshake at $8.2 million.
Stratton had two big turning points in her campaign, including a first debate in January in which she went on the offensive against Krishnamoorthi. Another boost came when Pritzker’s cash infusion to the Illinois Future PAC, which allowed it to blast out ads to support her and criticize Krishnamoorthi.
The Sun-Times in December reported that Krishnamoorthi accepted more than $90,000 in contributions from key donors to President Donald Trump and MAGA, including Palantir Chief Technology Officer Shyam Sankar. Palantir has a $30 million contract with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to provide tools to track self-deportation. The company has been an ICE contractor since 2011. Krishnamoorthi ultimately donated $30,000 to three immigrant rights groups.
For her part, Stratton has been hit by the Krishnamoorthi campaign for vowing not to take corporate PAC money, but coming from a long history of taking in corporate contributions. She was also criticized for a CBS report that highlighted a Stratton-aligned super PAC receiving a six-figure donation from ICE contractor CoreCivic.
Kelly, who has represented the 2nd Congressional District since 2013, has been watching the Krishnamoorthi-Stratton feud, and staying out of it. Her final TV ad is called “Distraction,” and it features her watching attack ads from the two and declaring, “Oh hell no.”
And despite PACs helping her to try to take votes away from Stratton, Kelly is insisting a vote for Krishnamoorthi is not a vote for her.
“A vote for Robin Kelly is a vote for Robin Kelly. Period,” she wrote on social media. “Vote for me if you want a work horse, not a show horse.”
Kelly gave up her seat to run for the Senate, so a loss on Tuesday will mark the end of her congressional career.
Steve Botsford Jr., Sean Brown, Awisi A. Bustos, Jonathan Dean, Bryan Maxwell, Kevin Ryan and Christopher Swann round out the field of Democratic candidates.