Voters in pivotal primary election will shape Illinois politics for years

Illinois’ representation in Washington will look vastly different this time next year — and for many years to come — all based on what voters decide today.

The state’s most pivotal primary election in a generation comes to a head Tuesday after a lengthy, intense campaign season pitting some of Illinois’ most powerful politicians against each other.

A third of the state’s congressional delegation — five U.S. House seats plus the one in the Senate soon to be vacated by Dick Durbin — are guaranteed to have new faces after November’s general election, while most of the electoral suspense in gerrymandered Illinois is all but guaranteed to be settled at this primary stage.

The generational turnover has led to an unprecedented influx of outside money pouring into the race to shape the voices sent to the U.S. Capitol. More than $50 million from super PACs and other special-interest groups has flowed into races — rivaling fundraising figures of the candidates themselves in some cases — and helped flood the airwaves and internet with an unceasing barrage of political ads.

It remains to be seen just how far those dollars will go for candidates looking for any way to stand out in crowded races — some of which very well might not have a clear-cut winner decided by last call at tonight’s election night parties. With some contests featuring 10 or more contenders and mail ballots trickling in over the next two weeks, the champagne might best be left on ice until election officials confirm nominees.

That’s why voter turnout will be as crucial as ever in a midterm election without a presidential race at the top of the ticket. While turnout typically dips in non-presidential years, many political operatives predict robust participation in Chicago and beyond due to scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s aggressive immigration enforcement across the area.

Early returns from the Chicago Board of Elections could be promising for fans of civic engagement. More than 188,000 ballots already had been cast by mail and at early-voting sites in Chicago as of Monday evening.

Whether it reflects evolving voter habits, a serious turnout boost or other factors to be determined, that’s a major jump from the roughly 116,000 early ballots that were received by the same stage ahead of the city’s 2022 primary, and 131,000 in 2018.

Perhaps it's partly because election officials had urged residents to send in their mail ballots well ahead of time to make sure they’re counted, given the new U.S. Postal Service processing regulations that can delay postmark dates.

Or maybe the weather forecasts have encouraged voters to knock out their civic duty ahead of time. This March has barreled in like a lion toward the St. Patrick’s Day primary, with tornadoes and torrential rain pounding the Chicago area in the final days of the campaign, throwing a wrench in many candidates’ late-stage canvassing plans. A late-season sticking of snow capped the decidedly un-springlike weather on Election Day eve, and it won’t be a fun trek to the precincts on Tuesday, either. Forecasters were calling for clearer skies and highs in the 20s, though it’ll feel like temperatures are in the single digits when the polls open.

But the primary races will be red-hot till the polls close. Here’s a last-minute look:

Heated Senate race

The marquee race in Illinois’ Democratic primary is a slugfest among a trio of political heavyweights: U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and U.S. Rep. Robin Kelly. They are the frontrunners in a primary with seven other contenders. Krishnamoorthi has one of the best-funded campaigns in the nation, Stratton has narrowed the gap in recent polls and Kelly can’t be counted out for the seat that Durbin has held for three decades.

Crowded fields for Congress

Jesse Jackson Jr. has emerged as a front-runner to retake the 2nd Congressional District seat being given up by Kelly, which Jackson held more than a decade ago before a federal conviction for misusing campaign funds. Strategists who spoke to the Sun-Times say they see Cook County Commissioner Donna Miller and state Sen. Robert Peters as Jackson’s biggest obstacles in a field of 10 candidates.

A staggering 15 candidates covet retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky’s 9th District seat, headlined by Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss, state Sen. Laura Fine and progressive content creator Kat Abughazaleh.

Thirteen are running in the 7th District free-for-all spurred by Rep. Danny Davis’ retirement after 30 years. Chicago City Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and state Rep. La Shawn Ford are widely considered the top contenders, but this could be Tuesday’s biggest crapshoot.

State- and county-level contests

Besides Senate, the tightest statewide race for a statewide office has four Democratic challengers vying for the chance to replace outgoing Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza: state Rep. Margaret Croke, state Sen. Karina Villa, Lake County Treasurer Holly Kim and state Rep. Stephanie Kifowit.

Meanwhile, Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle looks to assert the strength of her formidable political organization over an energetic challenger, Ald. Brendan Reilly (42nd). And county Assessor Fritz Kaegi, looking to hold on for a shot at a third term, will have to fend off Lyons Township Assessor Pat Hynes, who has the backing of the Preckwinkle-led Cook County Democratic Party.