Why Gulf states aren’t joining the war against Iran — despite attacks on their soil
Even as Iran expands attacks across the Persian Gulf, several of the countries directly targeted are still refusing to join the fight against Iran, opting instead for restraint and diplomacy. Gulf governments say their priority is defending their territory while preventing a wider conflict that could destabilize the region and global energy markets.
When asked by Fox News White House senior correspondent Peter Doocy about Iran’s strikes on Gulf states Monday, Donald Trump said experts had not anticipated Tehran would target neighboring countries.
"Nobody. Nobody. The greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit," Trump said when Doocy asked about Iranian attacks targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait.
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Tehran widened the conflict after U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian oil facilities earlier this month, expanding retaliation to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes in the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project.
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded at least 25 Iranian attacks against shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz since Feb. 28, as well as strikes targeting energy infrastructure across several Gulf states.
"Tehran targeted Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz seeking to raise the costs of the war for the U.S. and its regional partners," said Luca Nevola, ACLED’s senior analyst for Yemen and the Gulf.
Jacob Olidort, chief research officer at the America First Policy Institute, told Fox News Digital that, "Since Operation Epic Fury began, our Gulf partners have responded with an unprecedented unified front against threats posed by the Iranian regime," he said, adding that their actions have focused on stopping attacks rather than expanding the war. "This reflects not just a desire to stabilize the region but also a recognition that the U.S. military’s success is what makes that possible."
Salman Al-Ansari, a Saudi geopolitical researcher, told Fox News Digital that Riyadh is focusing on maintaining global market stability. "Riyadh is exercising maximum restraint at the moment, but the real question is how long that restraint can last," Al-Ansari said.
Al-Ansari pointed to a long-standing Saudi strategic philosophy. "Over a hundred years ago, the founder of Saudi Arabia, King Abdulaziz Al Saud, said: ‘The living do not fight the dead.’ Perhaps Riyadh is following this doctrine, at least until further developments unfold," he said.
Qatar has taken a similar approach. "The State of Qatar’s policies always seek to de-escalate conflicts," a Qatari official told Fox News Digital. "Qatar is not a party to this war, and we strongly believe that the violence must end through negotiations. At the same time. Qatar continues to defend its country and sovereignty following the Iranian attacks."
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Another factor shaping Gulf restraint is a regional policy of refusing to allow their territory to be used for attacks on Iran. Some U.S. military experts say the Gulf’s hesitation is also tied to long-standing concerns about Washington’s reliability in the region.
Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told Fox News Digital that inconsistent U.S. policies have eroded trust among Gulf partners. "Our policies in the Middle East have been more cyclical than a revolving door," Harward said. "We have failed to earn the trust and confidence of our Gulf partners over the last decade and a half. And that lack of trust and confidence has only exacerbated the threat from Iran to the region."
The now retired vice admiral said Gulf governments are weighing the risks of escalation carefully. "As these countries consider whether to go on the offensive, they are worried about what happens when we leave," he said. "Admittedly, these countries are challenged to defend themselves against a country of 90 million without us."
Regional analysts say Gulf leaders are concerned that if even one country joins the fighting, the conflict could quickly engulf the region.
Abdullah Aljunaid, a Bahraini analyst, told Fox News Digital that if one member of the Gulf Cooperation Council enters the war, it could drag the entire bloc with it. "If any member of the GCC decided to join this offensive, it would obligate the rest of the GCC countries to join at the same time," Aljunaid said.
The consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield. "You could imagine what the oil prices would be. We are definitely talking about north of $150 per barrel," he claimed.
Aljunaid said Gulf leaders are also wary of open-ended military campaigns in the region. "Past experiences show that every time military action is initiated in the region, it never ends according to what was promised," he said.
Instead, he said Gulf countries are focusing on defensive measures while quietly supporting diplomatic channels, including mediation efforts through Oman.
Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III said Iran made a major strategic mistake by striking Gulf countries. "Iran made a strategic blunder by striking Gulf nations – our allies and friends – with ballistic missiles and drone attacks," Newton told Fox News Digital.
The retired Air Force commander warned that attacks on key infrastructure such as oil fields or desalination plants could push Gulf states toward a more aggressive response.
"I'm inclined to believe there may potentially be one or two nations in the region inclined to join with the U.S. by going offensive against Iran," Newton said. "That is certainly within the realm of possibility in the coming weeks."
Newton added that the long-term objective for the U.S. and its partners should be preventing Iran from threatening regional stability and global shipping routes. "That includes achieving maritime dominance in the Persian Gulf and setting the conditions for safe passage for commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
For now, however, Gulf leaders appear determined to contain the conflict rather than escalate it, even as Iranian strikes have already reached their territory.
The UAE did not immediately respond to requests for comment.