Our View: It defies belief that Trump wants to drag his Nato allies into war
After more than two weeks of Operation Epic Fury, the largest US intervention in the Middle East since the Iraq war in 2003, it remains unclear what President Donald Trump goal was. This appears to have been a military operation without a clear goal.
In fact, the goal appears to have changed more than once since the US strikes on Iran commenced. The initial objective was regime change. During the naval build-up in January, the US backed the protesters in Iran, urging them to topple the regime as they were being gunned down in the streets of Tehran. While the first day of strikes killed the entire political leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, there was indication that regime change was even a remote possibility.
Iran hit back by firing missiles and drones at its neighbours, while the state, despite the killing of its top officials, remained in control of the country. The goal suddenly became the elimination of Iran’s nuclear programme, which was supposedly destroyed during 12 days of bombing by the US last year, and its ballistic missiles. The US and Israel may have had more success in this respect now, but it does not seem to have brought the surrender of Iran any closer.
The ultimate retaliatory act by Iran for the US and Israeli air strikes was the closing of the strait of Hormuz which has squeezed the global oil supply and pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel. It has caused what some describe as “the largest oil supply disruption in history” and has forced the US to engage in another mission shift. The goal now is to secure the strait of Hormuz, through which some 20 million barrels of oil are moved, representing 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade.
And Trump is now putting pressure on countries to send their warships to the area to secure the strait and protect shipping. He has asked the UK, France, South Korea, Japan and China to send ships to the strait as well as other European allies. He has warned that if it is a negative response – all indications are that they will not comply – “it will be very bad for the future of Nato.” He was demanding that these countries came in “because it is their territory…it is the place from which they get their energy.”
It defies belief the US president wants to drag his Nato allies and other countries like Japan and South Korea into a war he started with Israel, without even informing his allies about the plans to attack Iran. He now wants them to send their navy to the strait of Hormuz to fight in a war they had never sought any part in to deal with the mess caused by the US and Israel. A mess that would have devastating consequences for all economies, big and small.