Undecided voters dominate as Disy and Akel remain locked in tight race

Nearly one in three voters have yet to decide how they will vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections, according to the second Noverna poll conducted for Politis on Monday.

The survey shows Disy narrowly ahead with 16.1 per cent of the vote, closely followed by Akel at 15.9 per cent.

The difference between the two parties falls within the margin of statistical error, indicating that the race for first place remains open.

The most striking finding of the poll is the share of undecided voters, which reaches 28.5 per cent of respondents.

Speaking to Politis radio, the paper’s director-general, Dionysis Dionysiou, said the figure suggests a highly volatile electoral environment.

“Almost one in three voters declares themselves troubled and has not yet reached a political choice,” Dionysiou said.

He added that the data shows limited movement among the largest parties but growing activity among smaller political formations.

“Compared to the previous measurement there are no dramatic changes in the parties’ percentages, but small parties are showing marginal gains while the number of undecided voters has increased,” he remarked.

The results indicate that both Disy and Akel maintain relatively stable cores of support, though neither party has managed to significantly expand its influence.

In third place stands Elam with 9.6 per cent of the total sample, maintaining a steady presence in high single digit levels.

When recalculated among respondents who expressed a clear party preference, ELAM rises to 13.4 per cent.

One of the most notable developments recorded in the poll is the strengthening of smaller and newer political formations.

Alma records 8.7 per cent of the total sample and 12.2 per cent among decided voters, reflecting an increase compared with the previous survey.

According to Dionysiou, the party’s upward trend suggests that Elam’s position in third place may not be entirely secure.

“If Alma’s upward trajectory continues, it is not ruled out that the two parties will converge in their percentages,” Dionysiou said.

Fidias’ Direct Democracy of Cyprus registers 7 per cent of the overall sample and 9.8 per cent among decided voters, though the survey records a slight decline compared with the previous month.

Diko appears at 6.8 per cent in vote intention and rises to 9.5 per cent after recalculation among decided voters, showing a modest increase.

“This picture insists on the position that the party continues to face difficulties in rallying and reapproaching part of its electoral base,” Dionysiou said, though he added that moving around the 10 per cent level could help stabilise its standing.

The poll also examined voter loyalty based on how respondents voted in the 2021 parliamentary elections.

Akel records the highest level of cohesion, with 67 per cent of its previous voters saying they remain with the party.

Diko follows with 52 per cent, Elam with 51 per cent and Disy with 50 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum, Edek records particularly low cohesion at just 22 per cent, suggesting that a large share of its former voters has already shifted towards other parties.

Disy appears to be losing part of its electorate to Elam, Alma and Direct Democracy, while a significant portion of its former voters now identify as undecided.

Diko similarly appears to be losing some voters to Alma as well as to the undecided category, while former Edek voters show considerable mobility, with movements mainly towards Alma and Akel.

In Nicosia, Disy and Akel appear at similar levels while undecided voters approach 30 per cent.

Limassol shows a relatively balanced distribution between parties, again accompanied by a large share of undecided respondents.

In Larnaca both Disy and Akel maintain strong support, while the political picture in Paphos appears more fragmented across several parties.

Famagusta stands out as the district where Elam records its strongest performance, reaching 24 per cent and emerging as the leading party in that area.

The poll also measured how certain voters feel about their current choices.

Disy voters appear the most confident, with 80 per cent saying they are certain about their vote.

Akel follows closely with 78 per cent, while certainty levels stand at 69 per cent for Direct Democracy, 64 per cent for Elam and 60 per cent for Diko.

Alam however records the lowest certainty levels, with fewer than half of its supporters saying they are fully decided.

Dionysiou said the high number of undecided voters means the campaign period ahead will be decisive.

“The final picture of the elections remains open and the pre election period that follows may upset the balance,”.

The poll was conducted by Noverna analytics between February 26 and March 11 using telephone interviews with 1,020 participants representing the voting population.