Exit or Escalation

With each passing day, the costs of the Iran war mount. Iran has proven far more resilient than Trump imagined and has been able to wreak havoc against U.S. assets and allies in the Gulf, using cheap and easily replenished weapons, notably drones and naval mines. The economic costs keep multiplying, not just for the U.S. but for the entire global economy.

At this writing, Trump seems torn between wishful denial and serious consideration of exit options. The best option—and it’s not that good—is some kind of deal for a cease-fire, in which the U.S. and Israel stop the attacks on Iran and give up on regime change, and Iran allows the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and stops targeting Gulf allies of the U.S.

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Trump could claim victory of a sort: He seriously weakened Iran as an aspiring nuclear power and its capacity to finance allies such as Hamas and Hezbollah. The economy quickly rebounds as the price of oil sharply drops. Trump could sound tough by reserving the right to resume attacks if there was evidence of revived nuclear activity or new support for regional radical Islamists.

Iran could also claim victory, declaring that the regime survived the massive assaults of the world’s most powerful military, and now has a respite in which to re-entrench its power and rebuild its own defenses.

But here’s the rub. It’s not clear that Iran would take that deal. Why should the Iranian leaders trust Trump to keep his word, especially since Israel and the U.S. have regularly assassinated Iranian leaders?

And why should Iran trust Trump to restrain Israel? The Iranians know that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s political interests diverge from Trump’s. Bibi wants to prolong the war as long as possible.

Getting to yes is hard enough without leaving the details to golfing pals rather than knowledgeable diplomats.

In a Sunday interview with CNN, Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Effie Defrin said Israel will continue its Iran campaign for at least three more weeks. Trump has been more cagey about when and on what terms the war might cease.

The difficulty of getting a deal is compounded by the fact that Trump’s lead negotiator, his real estate and golfing buddy Steve Witkoff, is way out of his depth. The indispensable Heather Cox Richardson quotes an authoritative report from Kelsey Davenport of the Arms Control Association pointing out, “Comments made by Witkoff in two background briefings with reporters on Feb. 28 and March 3, as well as media appearances since the strikes began, made clear that Witkoff did not have sufficient technical expertise or diplomatic experience to engage in effective diplomacy. His lack of knowledge and mischaracterization of Iran’s positions and nuclear program throughout the process likely informed Trump’s assessment that talks were not progressing and Iran was not negotiating seriously.”

Getting to yes is hard enough without leaving the details to golfing pals rather than knowledgeable diplomats. A strategically astute president would get serious about the details of an exit strategy. But this is Trump.

The alternative course is escalation, and that seems to be where Trump is headed. Ground zero in that approach is Kharg Island. The island, about one-third the size of Manhattan, is the staging and storage area for some 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports.

So far, Trump has ordered strikes on military targets on the island but not the oil infrastructure or the reported 18 million barrels of oil stored there (out of a capacity of over 30 million). Both sides understand that destroying the oil facilities would cross a red line that would lead to an all-out Iran war against other Gulf states.

One illuminating comparison is with the deal that headed off World War III in the October 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. President Kennedy, after learning that the Soviet Union had placed offensive missiles with nuclear weapons in Cuba, ordered a naval blockade. After several tense days, Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev negotiated a deal in which Khrushchev agreed to withdraw the missiles, and Kennedy agreed not to overthrow the Castro regime, though the U.S. did continue to try to destroy Cuba economically. In a secret part of the deal, Kennedy agreed to withdraw some offensive missiles from Turkey.

Kennedy liked to quote Winston Churchill’s line: “We arm to parley.” By contrast, the impulsive Trump arms to show off.

When Trump sent an armada to the coast of Iran in late February, some commentators thought that this was for bargaining purposes. They were wrong.

Trump has now ordered the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, with about 2,500 Marines, to the region along with the amphibious assault ship the USS Tripoli. It’s not yet clear whether the idea is to attack mine-laying small vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, to escort tankers, or to be part of a possible amphibious assault on Kharg Island and other small islands from which attacks on shipping are launched.

We know from the record in both Venezuela and Iran that when Trump sends an armada, the idea is to use it. But without far more forces, the impact of this strategy would be inconclusive and would prolong the war for months, leading to pressure to send in yet more troops.

Trump, in a reflection of his unreality, has called upon America’s European allies to help the U.S. clear the Strait of Hormuz. These would be the same allies that Trump regularly fails to consult, bullies, slaps with tariffs, and even threatens to invade.

As Trump’s disgusting use of war footage as video games shows, he esteems killing for killing’s sake—he even said that he might order more bombing of Kharg Island “for fun”—and Pete Hegseth is worse. This week’s New Yorker cover, by cartoonist Barry Blitt, titled “War-a-Lago,” shows Trump trying to be Gen. Douglas MacArthur, one of World War II’s notable heroes. But instead of MacArthur in a Jeep, we see Trump in a golf cart with Hegseth as caddy.

In a splendid case of life imitating art, after the New Yorker issue came out, Trump spent some of the weekend golfing and posted on social media an old photo of himself in dress uniform at New York Military Academy, where he was shipped off at age 13 and attended high school. Trump, of course, never served in the real military, thanks to faked bone spurs.

Some of Trump’s advisers and many Republicans in Congress want Trump to cut his losses. They are up against Trump’s own magical thinking and malignant narcissism.

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