Cracketology: Contingency Plans
It's rare that nearly every game on Sunday seems to have some level of meaning aside from just the automatic bid, but with the exception of the American Final, all of the results will impact someone on the seed list. With that in mind, I'm going to go into this with the following expectations, picking the team that would rank higher in the seed list to win all of their respective finals:
- YALE over Penn in the Ivy League Final
- VANDERBILT over Arkansas in the SEC Final
- VCU over Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Final
- SOUTH FLORIDA over Wichita in the American Final
- MICHIGAN over Purdue in the Big 10 Final
PENN WINS IVY LEAGUE: If the upset happens, Yale is eliminated and every team from 50-Northern Iowa to 57-Wright State moves up one spot. This means that High Point becomes a 12-seed, Hawaii becomes a 13-seed, and Penn slots in as the new 57, making them a 14-seed.
ARKANSAS WINS SEC: Vanderbilt moved up to the last 3-seed on the expectation of being SEC Champs. If the Razorbacks win, Vandy and Nebraska swap spots. Nebraska is the last 3-seed and Vanderbilt is the top 4-seed. Arkansas remains unchanged.
DAYTON WINS ATLANTIC 10: If the Flyers pull the upset, that eliminates 45-San Diego State from the field and Dayton is slotted into #45 overall and an 11-seed. VCU stays at #43 but is now playing in Dayton as the second to last at-large.
WICHITA STATE WINS AMERICAN: If the Shockers shock the Bulls, they simply take their spot. No change, the American champ is #46 overall and an 11-seed.
PURDUE WINS BIG 10: If the Boilermakers win, Arizona would jump Michigan to #2 overall as the Wolverines would fall to #3, but both would remain on the 1-line. Purdue would jump up ahead of Michigan State to #8 overall as the last 2-seed.
We'll wrap with a quick bubble discussion, then have the final projected Seed List.
Ultimately, I went with San Diego State over Auburn and Texas. It was three teams for one spot. While San Diego State was the lowest in WAB (#47, -0.15 score) that is on par with Xavier from last year (#49, -0.12) who was the last team in. Auburn (#44, +0.40) has some nice wins, but 16 total losses would be the most ever for an at-large team and 17-16 would be the worst winning percentage for an at-large team. Auburn is also 11-16 in Q1-3, which would be by far the worst ever record in that range (last year's Texas was 13-15, the only sub-.500 Q1-3 record to earn an at-large). Texas (#46, +0.00) also has good wins, but they are 10-14 in Q1-3, which would also be the worst ever selected. San Diego State may not have the top end wins, but also didn't have the opportunity volume that Auburn and Texas had. They did, however, go 15-11 in Q1-3 and don't have any of the fatal flaw numbers the other two have.
I feel like no matter which team I pick here, I'll be wrong. This decision gets easier if Dayton wins the A-10 and knocks this spot completely out of the field, but for now I'm going with San Diego State as the last team in.
This is my best shot at a bracket, but it could change a lot in the next few hours. The Committee will definitely have contingencies.