Illinois' height, shooting, playmaking will lead team to Indy, where it'll take down Florida for crown

LAS VEGAS — My belief in Illinois hoops has not wavered for 11 months, since Andrej Stojakovic committed to the Illini on April 28, 2025, triggering a run to two sportsbooks.

I grabbed 60-to-1 title odds on Illinois at the Westgate SuperBook and 65-1 at Circa Sports. At both shops, I increased my typical futures investment.

Illinois exited the regular season with the top offense in college hoops, an adjusted rating of 131.6 that perched it atop stats guru Ken Pomeroy’s chart.

At TeamRankings, Illinois owned the No. 1 offensive efficiency, at 1.235, including the top road rating of 1.203.

Unless Harvard wins the Ivy, nobody in this NCAA Tournament will sport a better team free-throw percentage than the Illini’s 79.3.

It has a top-30 adjusted defensive efficiency, with the lowest free throws-to-field goals allowance. Don’t send Illinois to the line, and foes will get minimal trips to that charity stripe.

This is the tallest team, with an average height of 80 inches (KenPom says), in college hoops, and it’s the most talented (I say), a fantastic arsenal led by 6-6 rookie guard Keaton Wagler.

The Kansas native shot 41% from beyond the arc during the season and 80.7% at the line and has team-high averages in minutes (33.5), points (18.1), assists (4.30) and steals (0.90).

The imposing inside forces are David Mirkovic and the Ivisic brothers, Tomislav and Zvonimir. With an array of shots and slinky inside moves with either hand, Stojakovic is my X-factor.

The Illini took seven regular-season lumps, tasting turpentine, which will serve its players well.

They’re “plenty good enough” to win it all, ninth-year Illinois coach Brad Underwood said after losing to Michigan. I have concurred since April 28.

Without knowing the brackets, I have the Illini beating Florida for the title April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The portfolio

Duke and Arizona are my other national semifinalists, who lose to the Illini and Gators, respectively, on April 4. Those four are all in the top 10 nationally in average scoring margin.

I do not trust Blue Devils coach John Scheyer, since I can pin at least three losses over his two seasons on his scheme failures.

Plus, did anyone notice last year’s national semifinal loss to Houston? Calls that always seemed to go Coach K’s way didn’t materialize. Those F-bomb torrents must have been persuasive.

(Moreover, how exactly did Scheyer NOT win a crown with Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, both thriving at the next level?)

At Florida, new floor general Boogie Fland has stepped into Walter Clayton’s Air Jordans nicely. His smart drives, combined with big men Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh and Rueben Chinyelu, can deflect the -Wildcats.

The defending-champion Gators displayed their continued class by covering in 14 of their final 17 regular-season games. Eight days after last year’s finale, I bought Florida to repeat at 28-1.

On Oct. 29, 2025, I added a +925 ticket (risk $100, say, to win $925) on the Illini reaching the Final Four, plus Florida (+385), Duke (+275), UConn (+275) and Gonzaga (+725).

As additional insurance, by mid-January, I had grabbed title tickets on Arizona (+1350 and +600), Gonzaga (35-1) and Iowa State (20-1).

In a high-energy title affair, I can envisage the Illini threatening the title-game record of 103 points tallied by UNLV, over Duke, in 1990.

Additional ducats

All season, I updated weekly a list of elite teams that registered among the top 10 percent in offensive and defensive efficiency and covered the spread at least 60% of the time.

That process yielded, among other nuggets, Florida Atlantic (at 40-1) to make the Final Four three years ago and the Gators (title tickets at 40-1 and 50-1) to win it all last season.

That list remained thin throughout 2025-26, proving there are scant dynamos poised to duplicate what UConn accomplished in 2023 and ’24, thumping the field in both NCAAs by going 6-0 against the spread.

Arizona appeared most frequently, Illinois showed in blips, as did Iowa, Saint Louis, Villanova and Virginia.

I grabbed a Nova 65-1 Final Four ticket on Feb. 28 and a 250-1 title ticket on Jan. 5. On Feb. 28, I also got 18-1 on the Cavaliers making the Final Four, and I added title tickets of 150-1 on Nov. 20 and 43-1 on Jan. 15.

With the Billikens, I got 32-1 for the Final Four (Feb. 28) and 125-1 for the title (Feb. 12). If any win a couple of games, I have golden hedging positions. However, I most favor Arkansas (60-1 title ticket on Feb. 18) and Wisconsin (30-1 Final Four ticket on March 1) to pull an upset or two — Michigan, beware.

Those were the odds Wednesday at William Hill, and all are subject to change.

The Badgers have reset their three-point records this season. In victories at Illinois, Michigan and Purdue, and at home against Michigan State, Wisconsin sank at least 15 three-point shots in each game.

Razorbacks guard Darius Acuff Jr. has healed from last month’s tweaked left ankle and should be fine for the NCAAs. He sparks an electric and unselfish team whose 1.889 assist-to-turnover ratio is third in the country. Plus, Arkansas covered in seven of its final nine regular-season games to go 21-10 against the number.

Foes close to the Hogs and Wisconsin in the bracket reveal will feel queasy.

Feel especially sorry, though, for those in the Illini’s path.