And the Oscar goes to …

This Sunday is the day the Hollywood industry gathers together in a theatre to congratulate themselves and hand out awards to one another. It is one of the oldest award ceremonies that might have lost its shine, but it is an institution that – love it or hate it – gets people talking.

Best Picture

The Best Picture category is packed to the brim with contenders: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, and Train Dreams.

It’s the kind of list that perfectly showcases how broad modern cinema has become: you have literary adaptations right next to historical horror blockbusters, next to eerily predictive political dramas, next to a biopic about a guy who LOVES ping-pong.

Here’s the thing, though. Best Picture is rarely about the film that is actually better than the others. At this level, it has more to do with personal preference than dissecting the film and picking up on subtle nuances. Best Picture has a lot to do with current events and the political climate – how people feel.

Taking that into consideration, it comes down to two movies: One Battle After Another and Sinners. Ryan Coogler’s vampire horror drama is a celebration of black cinema, black actors and black history. Its message isn’t exactly subtle: the racist white people are vampires out to get the oppressed black minority who just wanna have a good time.

On the other hand we have One Battle After Another, a deeply political film about a former leftist revolutionary who takes up arms once more against a quasi-fascist anti-immigrant government.

Prediction: One Battle After Another

Best Director

I could write “see above” and be done with it. As with Best Picture, Best Director again comes down to the movies mentioned above. Ryan Coogler directed Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson was the mastermind behind One Battle After Another.

As I consider these two movies to be on equal footing when it comes to accolades, I would not be at all surprised if one of them gets Best Picture and the other gets Best Director. They are that close.

Prediction: Ryan Coogler

Best Actor

First things first: Timothée Chalamet’s comments about disparaging ballet and opera cannot hurt his chances to win Best Actor as Oscar voting closed on March 5, a few days before those comments surfaced.

Then again, the controversy regarding the Safdie brothers – who directed Marty Supreme – was already present, so negative publicity might have played some part. The Safdie brothers were accused by a 17-year-old actress of abusive behaviour on set and filming an explicit scene, but both said they did not know her age and were informed only after the scene was shot.

Even without negative press, Chalamet would find it difficult to stand out in this crowd. Leonardo DiCaprio was amazing as the ageing revolutionary, Michael B Jordan shines in the double role of twins turned bootleggers turned vampire slayers, and Ethan Hawke proves that he ages like the finest of wines in Blue Moon.

But just for the dual performance, I believe the award should go to Michael B Jordan.

Prediction: Michael B Jordan

Best Actress

It sucks that when it comes to Best Actress what is usually required is candlelight and someone being emotionally devastated in period clothing, but this is the timeline we live in, so Hamnet shoots straight to the top of the list with Jessie Buckley being the likely recipient.

All jokes aside though, Hamnet – the story of how William Shakespeare and his wife Anne coped with the death of their 11-year-old son Hamnet – is a real tear-jerker made into a great movie through captivating performances by Paul Mescal and Buckley.

The actress is the emotional gravity centre of the film and delivers an amazing performance that is most definitely worthy of an Oscar.

Prediction: Jessie Buckley

Best Supporting Actor

Again, the field is filled with worthy candidates but there is only one man who should win and that is Sean Penn for his role as Lockjaw in One Battle After Another.

Why “should”? Because the man dislikes winning awards and has repeatedly asked not to be nominated and flat-out refuses to campaign for a nomination. He needs to win just so we can see how angry he gets!

Prediction: Sean Penn (for the giggles)

Best Supporting Actress

Look, Teyana Taylor was great in One Battle After Another, but Amy Madigan as Aunt Gladys in Weapons is on a whole new level. She’s haunting, devilishly scary and brings a whole new meaning to the word “terrifying.”

She is the clear favourite for this award and deservingly so.

Prediction: Amy Madigan