Spoiling the 2026 Oscars for you

Last year’s Oscars were exciting. Every movie nominated for Best Picture seemed to have a chance to win the top prize. There were constant controversies and drama (from AI accents to Twitter outbursts) causing any frontrunners that emerged to fall behind. There was a truly hateable villain that, unfortunately, had a real shot at winning it all in Emilia Perez. It wasn’t until just a few days before the ceremony that it seemed like Anora would be the night’s big winner, and even then it didn’t seem to be a sure thing. There were some hilarious moments during the actual ceremony, such as Adrien Brody’s ridiculously long and pretentious acceptance speech or the Emilia Perez writers trying to sing while they were being played off stage. Conan O’Brien hosted for the first time, a far better entertainer than the regular host Jimmy Kimmel. Ultimately, Anora did end up cleaning up, and, while not my personal choice for Best Picture, it was still a satisfying winner.

The 2026 Oscars, on the other hand, couldn’t be more boring. Most major categories have been locked down since the moment the nominations were announced, and everyone seems to know it too. Last year, people were fighting in the press to get more attention on their film. This year, you’d be forgiven for forgetting the Oscars were even happening this weekend. On top of that, there’s no villain whatsoever. While it’s nice that no truly awful movie has a shot at winning anything significant, it also makes the ceremony a lot less interesting.

Now, I haven’t seen all of the movies nominated, but I have seen most of the Best Picture nominees, which means I’m already better positioned to talk about these movies than most actual Oscar voters. Thus, with my truly vast cinematic knowledge combined with my perfect understanding of how the Oscars work, I shall now prognosticate the winner of every major category with stunning accuracy. So load up your favorite betting apps, as all of the following “predictions” are actually locks.

Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling and Production Design: Frankenstein

If a movie has good production design in one aspect, it tends to have it in others too. So it’s not uncommon for a single movie to snowball and run away with most production-related awards. Last year it was Wicked, and this year, it’s Frankenstein. I think it genuinely does deserve these awards too; for how underwhelming I found that movie to be, it did have great production. Makeup and Hairstyling, though, could – and probably should – go to The Ugly Stepsister instead, but the chances the Oscar voters have actually seen that movie are very slim.

Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire and Ash

The biggest lock of the night. Nothing else in the category even stands a chance. As much as I find the Avatar movies to be dreadfully boring derivative slop, the fact that they look like a video game cutscene instead of a movie means they are always going to take home an Oscar. 

Hooray. 

Original Screenplay: Sinners

Okay, maybe there is one thing interesting about the 2026 Oscars: Sinners picking up nominations in 16 categories, the most ever for a single movie. The film is definitely not going to leave empty-handed, and I think the best part about Sinners (and the most likely to win) is its screenplay. I mean, it is an actually new vampire story with hints of both musical and action films with an insane amount of thematic resonance and symbolism, AND it made a ton of money (so the voters probably actually saw it). How could it not win?

Personally, I would give this one to Marty Supreme, but I certainly will not be upset when Sinners inevitably takes it.

Foreign Language Film: Sentimental Value

Of the five nominees for Best Foreign Language film, two are nominated for Best Picture as well. So, it doesn’t take a genius to realize that The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value are the only movies that have a chance in this category. Between the two, I think Sentimental Value has a better shot for two reasons. First, a Brazilian movie won last year (The Secret Agent is also Brazilian), and I think they’ll want to mix it up. Second, Sentimental Value is a reflection, not only of the movie industry as a whole, but also on legendary actor Stellan Skarsgård’s career. The Academy loves that type of self-congratulatory contemplation, so Sentimental Value is taking this one home.

Best Actress: Jessie Buckley

The second biggest lock of the night. And that’s not to say the rest of the women nominated didn’t do a good job, but Jessie Buckley carried Hamnet on her back. For a movie as devastating as Hamnet, that’s not going to go unnoticed. She truly gave an absolutely incredible performance, and she’s definitely my personal pick. I’m sure the Academy, despite their reputation to the contrary, will not get this one wrong.

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet   

Timothée Chalamet has made it clear that he wants to win. In his acceptance speech at the 2025 SAG awards, he outright said he wants to be one of the best actors of all time: “I’m really in pursuit of greatness. I know people don’t usually talk like that but I want to be one of the greats, I’m inspired by the greats.” Marty Supreme and Chalamet’s extravagant press tour can be seen as reflections of this exact goal. I mean, the movie’s tagline is “Dream Big” and is about the best ping pong player in the world pursuing his dream to be great; it’s kind of impossible not to read that as commentary on Chalamet’s own ambitions.

That type of multi-layered performance with commentary on the entertainment industry is the exact type of story the Academy eats up. Plus, he did give a genuinely great performance, and Marty Supreme doesn’t work without him specifically delivering. PLUS, in a period dubbed “an era without movie stars,” Chalamet has consistently shown that he is a box office draw, and the Academy is absolutely going to award that (like a passing of the torch moment). I don’t think the other nominees stand a chance, or rather, I know the other nominees don’t stand a chance. Maybe Ethan Hawke.

Personally, I thought Jessie Plemons gave the best performance of the year in Bugonia, but he wasn’t even nominated! Good thing I didn’t make this list to predict – oops, I mean prophesize –  nominees, as that would’ve been embarrassing.

And now for the reason the 2026 Oscars are so boring:

Best Directing, Editing, Adapted Screenplay and Picture: One Battle After Another

Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the most legendary directors in Hollywood, so iconic that he’s known better by his moniker “PTA” than he is by his actual name. Despite making multiple modern masterpieces such as There Will be Blood, Magnolia, Punch Drunk Love, The Phantom Thread and more, he has never won an Oscar before. A polyhistor wrote previously for North By Northwestern that the Oscars have a history of giving out sympathy awards for artists whose recognition is overdue. PTA is in the perfect position for a sympathy award, so he’s got the politics behind him.

On top of that, One Battle After Another is genuinely a brilliant film. It’s funny, action-packed, heartfelt and a reflection on the current state of the world that actually expresses some optimism. Combine its quality with the feeling that it’s PTA’s “turn” to win, and One Battle After Another is absolutely cleaning up this year. I only listed the categories I thought are absolute locks, but it could easily win Best Casting, Cinematography and Original Score as well (but Marty Supreme and Sinners will be challenges to beat in those categories). 

No other movie stands a real chance to win the top prize, draining the whole night of any dramatic tension or stakes that the ceremony usually has. The predictability has reduced the 2026 Oscars to a rather boring affair.

Animated Short Film, Documentary Feature Film, Documentary Short Film, Live Action Short Film: who cares

Let’s be real. I didn’t see any of these movies, you didn’t see any of these movies and the Academy voters certainly didn’t see any of these movies. Movies in these categories certainly have their place in the greater cinematic artistic sphere, but come on. No one’s watching the Oscars desperately hoping that “Butcher’s Stain” will beat out “The Singers” to win Best Live Action Short Film, outside of those films’ actual creators. From what little I’ve heard, Best Animated Short Film should go to “The Girl Who Cried Pearls,” Best Documentary Feature Film to The Perfect Neighbor, Best Documentary Short Film to “All the Empty Rooms” and Best Live Action Short Film to “Butcher’s Stain.”  

Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress: actually competitive

The most interesting categories of the night will also be the first categories to be announced. Absolute dogfights are happening in both categories here – genuinely every nominee in both categories has a good shot to win and would be a satisfying winner. But there are so many different styles doing so many different things at the absolute zenith of ability across these two categories that it’s impossible to say who will win. If I was forced to, I would say Jacob Elordi (for Frankenstein) and Teyana Taylor (for One Battle After Another), just from my great and very real talent to detect where the winds of the movie industry are blowing. 

My personal picks would be Sean Penn – his villain performance in One Battle After Another manages to be both intimidating and funny – and Teyana Taylor, for how little screen time she has in One Battle After Another she has such a huge presence over the rest of the film.

And that is how the 2026 Oscars will go down. For the three categories I didn’t mention – Best Sound, Best Original Song and Best Animated Film – I unfortunately don’t know enough to effectively prophesize or call them a complete tossup. Probably F1 or Sirat, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, or KPop Demon Hunters or Zootopia 2 respectively will win from what little I’ve heard. Either way, it’s definitely One Battle After Another’s night. Hopefully something interesting will happen during the actual ceremony, because all the suspense of who will win was never there to begin with this year.